000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262009 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2030 UTC Tue May 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 100W north of 05N, moving west around 15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 95W and 100W. The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 84W north of 06N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted inland over portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N77W to 05N84W to 12N96W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N105W to 09N132W. The ITCZ extends from 09N132W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the monsoon trough between 85W and 95W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm of the monsoon trough east of 85W, and within 120 nm SE semicircle of the low. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle NW winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters between a weakening offshore high pressure ridge and low pressure over inland Mexico. Light to gentle SE winds are noted over the Gulf of California. Farther south, recent scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate N winds offshore of southern Mexico, north of the monsoon trough. Seas generally remain 4-6 ft across much of the forecast area, with 6-7 ft seas in SW swell south of the Tehuantepec region. Little change in marine conditions is expected over the next couple days as offshore high pressure weakens. Long-period SW swell will continue propagating across the offshore waters through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days offshore of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Satellite imagery and GOES-16 lightning data show the monsoon trough remains active this afternoon, with the strongest showers and thunderstorms located offshore of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Recent scatterometer data shows generally moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 4-7 ft across the region in SW swell. Gentle to moderate monsoon flow will strengthen later this week as broad low pressure is expected to form offshore of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. Expect increasing winds and seas, along with gusty showers and thunderstorms, over the offshore waters late this week and into the weekend. Long-period SW swell will continue propagating across the region for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An upper-level low pressure system centered near 26N131W has induced a surface trough over the northern waters, per recent scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh winds are noted with this feature over the waters N of 28N W of 130W. Gentle to moderate trades continue W of 125W between a weak high pressure ridge and the ITCZ/monsoon trough. A broad area of fresh winds is located S and SE of low pressure analyzed along the monsoon trough near 10N105W. Seas in this region are 8-10 ft in combined wind waves and SW swell. Elsewhere, seas 8 ft or greater are noted south of the Equator W of 100W. A trough or weak surface low will remain nearly stationary near 26N131W for the next couple days, with fresh winds and seas to 8 ft over the far NW portion. The low pressure along the monsoon trough will drift NE over the next day or so, then become absorbed into a broader cyclonic circulation late this week over the eastern Pacific. $$ B Reinhart