000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1600 UTC Tue May 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 99W from 04N to 15N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm east of the wave axis. The southern part of a western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W north of 05N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N77W to 11N97W to 1010 mb low pressure near 08N107W to 08N135W. The ITCZ extends from 08N135W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N east of 98W, from 10N to 14N between 90W and 98W, and from 06N to 12N between 100W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 09N between 107W and 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from high pressure centered north of the area near 34N139W southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate NW winds continue offshore of Baja California between the ridge and low pressure over inland Mexico. Wave heights offshore of Baja California remain in the 4-6 ft range. Light and variable winds continue over the Gulf of California, where wave heights are less than 3 ft. The high pressure will weaken through Thu, with little change to present marine conditions. Southwest swell will build seas slightly over the waters south of Tehuantepec Wed through late this week. Agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies near the coast of southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Wave heights south of the monsoon trough remain 4-6 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate monsoon flow will prevail over the next few days. Long-period SW swell will continue impacting the offshore waters through at least Wed, with wave heights building to near 8 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form later this week offshore of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical cyclone could form late this week or this weekend while it moves little or drifts northward. Expect increasing winds and seas, along with gusty showers and thunderstorms, to begin to increase in coverage over most of the offshore waters by Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from high pressure centered north of the area near 34N139W southeastward across the northern waters. Gentle to moderate NE winds continue between this ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Fresh winds are occurring in the southern semicircle of 1010 mb low pressure analyzed near 08N107W, with seas running 8-10 ft in combined wind waves and SW swell. Farther south, S to SW swell is supporting 7-9 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 105W. This swell will continue to propagate NE through Wed before it gradually begins to decay. High pressure will weaken over the northern waters as an upper- level pressure system induces a surface trough/low near 26N130W by Wed morning. Expect fresh winds along with wave heights building to 8 ft northwest of the low Wed into Thu as it remains nearly stationary. $$ B Reinhart