000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252051 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2050 UTC Mon May 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 95W north of 04N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 90W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N78W to 06N81W to 12N95W to 1007 mb low pressure near 09N106W to 09N135W. The ITCZ begins near 09N135W and continues beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N and E of 80W, and from 04N to 10N between 97W and 110W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from high pressure centered north of the area near 34N138W southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate NW winds offshore of Baja California, between this ridge and lower pressures over inland Mexico. Light and variable winds prevail over the Gulf of California. A 13 UTC altimeter pass shows 4-6 ft seas between the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes, with seas less than 3 ft within the Gulf of California. Offshore high pressure will weaken through the middle of the week, maintaining gentle to moderate winds over much of the region. SW swell will produce increasing seas over the waters south of Tehuantepec Wed through late this week. Fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies near the coast of southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate S to SW flow persists south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas remain 4-6 ft over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama per recent altimeter data, mainly in SW swell. Gentle to moderate monsoon flow will prevail over the next few days. Long-period SW swell will continue impacting the offshore waters through mid-week, with wave heights building to near 8 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands by Wed. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form later this week offshore of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. This system will bring increasing winds and seas, along with gusty showers and thunderstorms, to the offshore waters by Thu or Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from high pressure centered north of the area near 34N138W southeastward across the northern waters. Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail between this ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ per recent scatterometer data. A 1007 mb low pressure center near 09N106W is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms with fresh winds, mainly in its S and SW semicircles. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW flow continues south of the monsoon trough between 95W and 115W. Farther south, SW swell is maintaining an area of 7-10 ft seas S of 08N and W of 100W. High pressure will weaken over the northern waters as an upper- level pressure system induces a surface trough/low near 26N131W by Wed morning. Expect fresh winds with seas building to 8 ft NW of the low Wed into Thu as it remains nearly stationary. The low pressure system near 09N106W will drift NE along the monsoon trough over the next couple days, with fresh winds and locally higher seas expected S and SE of the low center. $$ B Reinhart