000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251511 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1510 UTC Mon May 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 94W north of 04N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N within 240 nm east of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N76W to 08N84W to 12N94W to 1008 mb low pressure near 09N107W to 09N135W. The ITCZ begins near 09N135W and continue beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted N of 04N and E of 80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 10N between 97W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from high pressure centered north of the area near 35N138W southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over inland Mexico is producing gentle to moderate NW winds offshore of Baja California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail across the region. A 10 UTC altimeter pass shows 4-6 ft seas south of Los Cabos, near the entrance to the Gulf of California. Wave heights are 3 ft or less within the Gulf. Offshore high pressure will weaken through the middle of the week, maintaining gentle to moderate winds off the coast of Baja California. SW swell will increase seas over the waters south of Tehuantepec Wed through late this week. Agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies and areas of smoke near the coast of southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow continues roughly south of 10N, with light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Based on overnight altimeter data, wave heights generally remain 4-6 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate monsoon flow will prevail over the next few days. Long-period SW swell will continue through mid-week, with wave heights building to near 8 ft by Wed SW of the Galapagos Islands. A broad area of low pressure expected to form offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador late this week will bring increasing winds and seas along with gusty showers and thunderstorms to the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from high pressure centered north of the area near 35N138W southeastward across the northern waters. Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail between this ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Recent altimeter data indicates seas remain 5-7 ft within these trades. A 1008 mb low pressure center near 09N107W is producing increased showers and thunderstorms in its southern semicircle, likely with locally fresh winds and higher seas. Overnight scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate S to SW flow south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 110W. Southerly flow to the south of the monsoon trough will freshen through Tue night roughly between 100W and 110W. This will build seas to 8-10 ft over these waters. Elsewhere, high pressure over the northern waters will weaken through Wed as a surface trough develops near 25N130W. Moderate to fresh winds and building seas could develop west of the trough over the far NW portion. $$ B Reinhart