435 AXPZ20 KNHC 250316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 90W north of 03N to inland the central section of Guatemala. It is moving westward at 10 kt. At the present time, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted along the wave axis from 04N to 07N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1009 mb low centered over northwestern Colombia near 11N74W westward to across northern Panama and to the coast at 09N84W. IT continues west-northwest to 11N96W to low pressure near 11N109W 1008 mb, then to low pressure near 10N121W 1011 mb and to another 1011 low near 10N132W, where latest scatterometer data indicates it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond the area at 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 07N to 09N between 104W-108W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 85W-88W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 126W-127W and within 30 nm of the trough between 124W-126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from high pressure centered near 34N136W to the Revillagigedo Islands, while low pressure is present over Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting generally gentle to moderate northwest winds west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Wave heights are in the 6-7 ft range west of Baja California and 5-6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range in the Gulf of California. The area of high pressure over the Pacific forecast waters will gradually weaken through early next week. This will bring a slight decrease in winds over the waters off the coast of Baja California. Agricultural fires in Mexico continue to produce hazy skies from near the Tehuantepec region to northwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwest monsoon flow continues south of 10N, with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Wave heights in the 4-6 ft range are due to southwest swell. Gentle to moderate monsoon flow will continue over the next few days. Moderate long-period southwest will continue through the middle part of the upcoming week with wave heights building to near 8 ft to the southwest of the Galapagos Islands by the middle part of the upcoming week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1027 mb is centered north of the area near 34N136W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southeast winds are south of the ITCZ. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range over the area. Scatterometer data from Sun afternoon revealed a few areas of weak lows embedded within the monsoon trough. One of 1008 mb is near 11N109W, another one with a pressure of 1011 mb is near 10N121W and another one with the same pressure is near 10N132W. Southerly flow to the south of the monsoon trough will strengthen slightly through Tue night roughly between 102W-118W. This will help build wave heights to 8-9 ft over these waters. The area of high pressure will weaken through the middle part of the upcoming week as surface troughing develops across the north-central waters. A broad area of low pressure will develop by the middle of next week along the troughing near 25N130W. $$ Aguirre