000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240401 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1008 mb low over northwestern Colombia near 10N74W, westward to across northern Costa Rica and to the coast at 11N86W. It continues westward to 09N.5N97W to low pressure near 12N110W 1010 mb, then to 10N120W and to low pressure near 09N131W 1010 mb, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond the area at 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the between 101W-103W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of 138W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between 102W-104W and between 125W and 126W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 92W-94W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Under a weak pressure gradient, generally gentle to moderate south to southwest winds along with low wave heights of 1-2 ft are noted across the Gulf of California. A ridge axis extends from near 32N135W southeastward to near 18N114W. The gradient between the ridge and the Gulf of California trough is allowing for moderate northwest to north winds along with wave heights in the range of 4-7 ft over the waters north of 20N. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds continue south of 20N along with wave heights of 4-6 ft. Agricultural fires in Mexico continue to produce hazy skies from near the Tehuantepec region to northwestern Mexico. Little change in marine conditions is expected with these marine conditions through the middle part of the upcoming week as broad high remains on place. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle south to southwest winds are over the waters off Central America, with gentle to moderate southwest winds farther south off Colombia and Ecuador. Wave heights are 4-6 ft due to southwest swell. An active monsoon trough will lead to moderate southwest swell during the next few days along with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters of southern Central America and Colombia. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate breezes will continue through the next few days. Moderate long- period southwest will continue through the middle part of the upcoming week with wave heights building to near 8 ft to the SW of the Galapagos Islands early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1028 mb high pressure center is located well north of the area at 36N135W with a ridge extending southeastward to near 18N114W. The gradient between the ridge and low pressure in the deep tropics near and along the monsoon trough is maintaining mainly moderate northeast trade winds, except for moderate to fresh speeds occurring from 09N to 15N between 126W-140W, where corresponding wave heights are in the range of 6-8 ft due to northeast wind waves combining with mix swell present there. A couple of 1010 mb weak lows remain along the monsoon trough, one is near 12N110W and the other is near 09N131W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm in the northeast quadrants of the lows. Wave heights peaking to 7 ft are around the low pressure located near 09N131W. Fresh to strong northerly winds offshore of southern California are northwest swell into the northeast part of the discussion area north of 29N and east of 125W. This swell is producing wave heights of 7-8 ft. This swell will decay by early Sun afternoon allowing for the wave heights to lower just below 8 ft. Southerly flow to the south of the monsoon trough will strengthen slightly on Sun and into Mon roughly between 106W-118W. This will build wave heights to 8-9 ft over these waters as a southwest swell contributes to the wave growth there. The aforementioned ridge is forecast to breakdown and shift westward early next week as weak surface troughing develops across the north-central waters, with broad cut-off low pressure developing along the troughing in the vicinity of 25N130W. Winds west of the troughing may increase to moderate to fresh helping to wave heights to around 8 ft in north-central waters early next week. $$ Aguirre