000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu May 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Updated The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1008 mb low over northwestern Colombia southwestward to the coast at 07N78W and continues to 11N89W to 10N102W to 12N106W to low pressure near 11N112W 1010 mb to 09N120W to low pressure near 09N129W 1010 mb and to 09N132W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond the area at 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between 86W-91W, and from 06N to 10N between 103W-110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the trough between 100W-104W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between 115W- 120W and south of the trough between 121W-128W and within 30 nm of the trough between 111W-114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center that is located well north of the area near 38N142W southeastward to south of Los Cabos. The earlier tight pressure gradient that was in place east of the this ridge has weakened allowing for the earlier strong northwest winds offshore northern Baja California to diminish to mainly moderate speeds. Wave heights will briefly subside to below 8 ft tonight, but build again to 8-9 ft late Fri night in a south to southwest swell component. Farther south, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may be reducing visibility slightly over the coastal waters south of Cabo Corrientes. Looking ahead, another trough moving through Baja California may allow for strong southwest gap winds into the northern Gulf of California Fri night into early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds persist off Central America, with gentle to moderate southwest winds farther south off Colombia and Ecuador. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft due to a southwest swell. Shower and thunderstorm may re-develop during the overnight hours along and just inland the coasts of Central American and Colombian coasts due to local drainage flow convergence. The active monsoon trough will lead to moderate southwest winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters of southern Central America and Colombia through at least Thu. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate breezes will continue through the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends from strong high pressure located well north of the area near 38N142W to southeastward to near Los Cabos. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure near and in the monsoon trough/ITCZ region is allowing for fresh northeast to east trade winds are noted from the monsoon trough/ITCZ north to about 20N. Recent and earlier altimeter satellite passes indicated wave heights to near 8 ft, mainly between 10N and 20N west of 120W. These wave heights are primarily due to southerly swell. A weak low of 1010 mb is slowly moving westward along the monsoon trough near 09N129W. Showers and thunderstorms have are less in intensity and in coverage across the deep tropics west of about 120W, while clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to be readily observed along and near the monsoon trough between 104W- 112W and also between 88W-95W. This activity lies underneath an elongated W to E anticyclone that is acting as an exhaust mechanism for the deeper convection. Wave heights are expected to subside just below 8 ft by Fri night as swell decays, but is forecast to again reach to 8 ft late Fri night and into Sat from residual swell energy generally within the area from 10N to 11N between 129W-131W. $$ Aguirre