000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210923 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 922 UTC Thu May 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 12N110W to 1011 mb low pressure near 09N115W to 1011 mb low pressure near 09N125W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 09N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 97W and 103W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 105W and 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure near 38N143W to south of Los Cabos. A tight pressure gradient is still in place between this ridge and 1009 mb low pressure centered over the lower Colorado River valley in Arizona. Earlier ship observations indicated fresh to strong NW to N winds still evident off Baja California Norte. A pair of recent altimeter satellite passes indicated seas were still near 8 ft. The pressure gradient should relax enough to allow the winds off Baja California to diminish through early morning. Seas of at least 8 ft will linger through Thu in a mix of swell. Farther south, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may be reducing visibility slightly over the coastal waters south of Cabo Corrientes. Looking ahead, another trough moving through Baja California may allow for strong southwest gap winds into the northern Gulf of California Fri night into early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The mid level trough that had been enhancing overnight coastal thunderstorms off Central America the couple of nights has shifted eastward. As a result, the nocturnal showers and thunderstorms are much more limited than they have been the past couple of nights. Light to gentle winds persist off Central America, with gentle to moderate southwest winds farther south off Colombia and Ecuador. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft due to a southwest swell. Some activity is still possible through the early morning due to local drainage flow convergence. The active monsoon trough will lead to moderate southwest winds along with increased showers and thunderstorms offshore southern Central America and Colombia through at least Thu. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate breezes will continue through the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends from strong high pressure located well north of the area near 38N143W to southeastward to near Los Cabos. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure near and in the monsoon trough/ITCZ region is allowing for fresh northeast to east trade winds are noted from the monsoon trough/ITCZ north to about 20N. Various altimeter satellite passes from the past several hours have continued to indicate seas to near 8 ft, mainly between 10N and 20N west of 120W. These seas are mainly due to southerly swell with shorter-period wind waves from moderate to fresh trade winds. A weak low pressure moving west- northwest is along the monsoon trough, near 10N129W. Showers and thunderstorms have diminished a bit across the deep tropics west of 120W, although a few thunderstorms persist along the monsoon trough between about 95W and 120W. Wave heights are expected to subside below 8 ft by Fri as the various swell components decay, although seas peaking to 9 ft may occur in fresh or even locally strong winds near the weak low that is analyzed at 10N129W as mentioned above. $$ Christensen