000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed May 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia northwest to across the border of Nicaragua/Costa Rica to the coast at 11N86W and continues to 09N98W to 12N110W to a 1010 mb low near 10N127W and to 09N128W, where afternoon scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond the area at 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 300 nm south of the trough between 94W-98W, within 240 nm south of the trough between 98W-105W, within 180 nm south of the trough between 110W-116W and within 120 nm south of the trough between 105W-110W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 09N between 81W- 91W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 131W-134W, within 60 nm north of the trough between 88W-91W and within 60 nm of the trough between 121W-125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The earlier weak trough that was analyzed from the southwestern to offshore waters of Baja California Norte has dissipated, while high pressure located well to the northwest of the area builds east-southeastward across these waters. A tight gradient is maintaining strong northwest to north winds offshore the coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro. This was confirmed by recent ship observations as well as those from the overnight hours. A recent ship with call sign "DFDG2" reported combined wave heights of 10 ft near 27N117W, while at the same time an altimeter satellite pass indicated wave heights near 10 ft just to its west. The same altimeter pass also indicated wave heights of 8-9 ft elsewhere over these waters. These winds and seas will subside through Thu night as the high pressure weakens leading to a slackening of the tight gradient. Farther south, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may be reducing visibility over the coastal waters mainly off Guerrero. Looking ahead, another trough moving through Baja California may allow fresh or even strong southwest gap winds into the northern Gulf of California Fri night into early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds persist off Central America, with gentle to moderate southwest winds farther south off Colombia and Ecuador. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft due to a southwest swell. The showers and thunderstorms observed this morning north of the monsoon trough along the coast from Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador have significantly diminished, but are expected to re- develop during the overnight hours. The active monsoon trough will lead to moderate to occasionally fresh southwest winds along with increased showers and thunderstorms offshore southern Central America and Colombia through at least Thu. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate breezes will continue through the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends from strong high pressure located well north of the area near 36N144W to southeastward to near Los Cabos. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure near and in the monsoon trough/ITCZ region is allowing for fresh northeast to east trade winds are noted from the monsoon trough/ITCZ north to about 25N, with wave heights of 8 ft from 06N to 22N and west of 120W in a mix of shorter period trade wind waves and lingering long-period mixed northwest and northeast swell. A weak low pressure area persists along the monsoon trough, near 08N125W. Broad upper-level anticyclonic flow evident from roughly 09N to 20N and between 105W-126W is providing for ventilation outflow for persistent clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough near Clipperton Island and westward from there to near 115W. Afternoon scatterometer satellite data suggests that the monsoon trough kinks northward over this area. Upper-level debris clouds from this activity is streaming eastward toward western Mexico. Mainly south to southwest swell is maintaining wave heights to a peak of 7 ft over the waters east of 120W. Wave heights are expected to subside below 8 ft on Fri as the various swell components decay, although seas peaking to 9 ft may occur in fresh or even locally strong winds near the weak low that is analyzed at 10N127W as mentioned above. $$ Aguirre