912 AXPZ20 KNHC 201600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed May 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 10N85W to 09N91W to 13N105W to 10N117W low pressure near 08N125W 1010 mb and to 08N129W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond the area at 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm south of the trough between 106W-111W and within 180 nm north of the trough between 131W-135W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 09N between 81W-89W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 91W-97W and within north of the trough between 116W-121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak trough extends from the southwestern U.S. to over the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte to the adjacent offshore waters. Overnight ship observations along with a pair of recent scatterometer satellite passes confirmed fresh to strong NW winds are active off the coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, as high pressure west of the area builds eastward in the wake of the trough. Previous altimeter satellite data also confirmed seas of 8-9 ft in the offshore waters of mainly north of Punta Eugenia. These winds and seas will subside through Thu night as the trough dissipates and the ridge builds over the area. Farther south, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may be reducing visibility over the coastal waters mainly off Guerrero. Looking ahead, another trough moving through Baja California may allow fresh or even strong SW gap winds into the northern Gulf of California Fri night into early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds persist off Central America, with gentle to moderate southwest winds farther south off Colombia and Ecuador. Seas are in the 4-6 ft due to a southwest swell. Nocturnal showers and thunderstorms are ongoing north of the monsoon trough along the coast from Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. The active monsoon trough will lead to moderate to occasionally fresh southwest winds along with increased showers and thunderstorms offshore southern Central America and Colombia through at least Thu. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate breezes will continue through the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends from high pressure well north of the area near 37N142W to southeastward to near Los Cabos. Moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds are noted from the monsoon trough/ITCZ to about 25N, with seas of 8 to 9 ft from 08N to 20N west of 120W in a mix of shorter period trade wind waves and lingering longer period northwest swell. A weak low pressure area persists along the monsoon trough, near 08N125W. A sharp mid-level trough reaching southward along roughly 115W is supporting persistent clusters of showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough near Clipperton Island, where overnight scatterometer satellite pass indicated an elongated weak surface circulation. This may form into a weak surface low later today. Southerly swell is maintaining seas to at least 7 ft over the waters east of 120W. Seas are expected to subside below 8 ft on Fri as the various swell components decay, although seas peaking to 9 ft may occur in fresh or even locally strong winds near a the weak low pressure currently near 08N125W as mentioned above. $$ Aguirre