000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200805 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 619 UTC Wed May 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W to 10N100W. Another segment reaches from 13N105W to 11N108W to 1009 mb low pressure near 08N125W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 08N125W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the coast of Central America from Costa Rica to El Salvador. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 108W and 112W and from 08N to 10N between 122W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak trough extends from the southwestern U.S. to over the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte to the adjacent offshore waters. Ship observations along with a pair of recent scatterometer satellite passes confirm fresh to strong NW winds are active off the coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, as high pressure west of the area builds eastward in the wake of the trough. Earlier altimeter satellite data also confirmed 8 to 9 ft in the offshore waters of mainly north of Punta Eugenia. These winds and seas will subside through mid week as the trough dissipates and the ridge builds over the area. Farther south, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may be reducing visibility over the coastal waters mainly off Guerrero. Looking ahead, another trough moving through Baja California may allow fresh or even strong SW gap winds into the northern Gulf of California Fri night into early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds persist off Central America, with gentle to moderate SW flow farther south off Colombia and Ecuador. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Nocturnal showers and thunderstorms are ongoing north of the monsoon trough along the coast from Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. The active monsoon trough will lead to moderate to occasionally fresh southwest winds along with increased showers and thunderstorms offshore southern Central America and Colombia through at least Thu. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate breezes will continue through the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from high pressure well north of the area near 43N145W to south of Los Cabos. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades are noted from the monsoon trough/ITCZ to about 25N, with seas of 8 to 9 ft from 08N to 20N west of 120W in a mix of shorter period trade wind waves and lingering longer period NW swell. A weak low pressure area persists along the monsoon trough, near 125W. A sharp mid level trough reaching southward along roughly 115W is supporting persistent clusters of showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough near Clipperton Island, where a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated an elongated weak surface circulation. This may form into a weak surface low later today. Southerly swell is maintaining seas to at least 7 ft over the waters east of 120W. Seas are expected to subside below 8 ft across the basin through mid week as the various swell components decay, although seas to 8 ft may occur in fresh or even locally strong winds near a the weak low pressure area along 125W. $$ Christensen