000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 914 UTC Mon May 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 07N90W to a 1009 mb low pressure center near 12N106W to a 1011 mb low pressure center near 09N123W to 08N127W. The intertropical convergence zone is located from 08N127W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed south of Panama from 03N to 08N between 80W and 83W, and within 120 nm off the coast from northwest Nicaragua to Chiapas. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 14N between 107W and 109W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends from 1019 mb high pressure centered near 25N130W southeastward off the coast of Baja California Sur. A surface trough resides over the Baja California peninsula, leading to moderate to locally fresh winds in the far northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas in open waters, with a component of southerly swell. Overnight land breezes are supporting thunderstorms off Chiapas. Otherwise no significant thunderstorm activity is noted. The high pressure to the west is dissipating, allowing a cold front to approach Baja California later today. The front will also weaken as it moves onshore. Moderate to fresh SE winds will continue ahead of the front in the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas to 9 ft may follow the front mainly off Baja California Norte through mid week as high pressure builds in the wake of the dying front. Farther south, expect pulses of fresh gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Mon into Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally tranquil marine weather conditions are in place over the area, with moderate south and southwest wind south of the monsoon trough and area seas averaging 4 to 6 ft. Numerous showers and thunderstorms persist offshore Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds will persist much of next week. To the south of the monsoon trough offshore Ecuador and Colombia, moderate to fresh SW winds are possible through Mon. The monsoon trough is likely to become more active Mon and Tue, leading to more significant showers and thunderstorms for the waters offshore Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1019 mb high center near 24N130W continues to weaken ahead of a cold front moving through the waters north of 25N west of 125W. NW swell of 8 to 10 ft follow the front. Along the monsoon trough, a pair of lows reside near 123W and 106W, with pressures of 1011 mb and 1009 mb, respectively. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been very active near the low at 106W, but this has started to diminish. Some fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are also likely near the low along 106W, with an added component of SW swell mixed in. Both lows are expected to move little and slowly weaken early this week, with area seas mainly falling below 8 ft by mid week. $$ Christensen