000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180304 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 304 UTC Mon May 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W 07N90W to a 1009 mb low pressure center near 13N102W to a 1010 mb low pressure center near 09N122W to 08N128W. The intertropical convergence zone is located from 08N128W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 02N to 04N east of 82W, and from 10N to 14N between 101W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 04N to 08N between 82W and 87W, and from 08N to 10N between 120W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends from 1020 mb high pressure centered near 24N130W southeastward off the coast of Baja California Sur. A surface trough resides over the Baja California peninsula, leading to moderate to locally fresh winds in the far northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas in open waters, with a component of southerly swell. A few showers and thunderstorms are active around 270 nm off at the coasts of Guerrero and Michoacan, near a 1009 mb low pressure area centered near 13N102W. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted. The high pressure will dissipate tonight, allowing a cold front to approach Baja California later Mon before dissipating. Moderate to fresh SE winds will continue ahead of the front in the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas to 9 ft may follow the front mainly off Baja California Norte through mid week as high pressure builds in the wake of the dying front. Farther south, the low pressure near 13N102W will weaken slightly as it drifts slowly westward along the monsoon trough into mid week. Expect pulses of fresh gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Mon into Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally tranquil marine weather conditions are in place over the area, with moderate south and southwest wind south of the monsoon trough and area seas averaging 4 to 6 ft. Numerous showers and thunderstorms persist offshore Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds will persist much of next week. To the south of the monsoon trough offshore Ecuador and Colombia, moderate to fresh SW winds are possible through Mon. The monsoon trough is likely to become more active Mon and Tue, leading to more significant showers and thunderstorms for the waters offshore Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb high center near 24N130W continues to weaken ahead of a cold front moving through the waters north of 25N west of 125W. NW swell of 8 to 10 ft follow the front. Along the monsoon trough, a pair of lows reside near 122W and 102W, with pressures of 1010 mb and 1009 mb, respectively. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within about 150 nm of the western low, with numerous strong thunderstorms located within about 180 nm of the eastern low. Some fresh winds and seas to around 9 ft are also likely near the low along 102W. Both lows are expected to move little and slowly weaken early this week, with area seas mainly falling below 8 ft by mid week. $$ Christensen