000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172013 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1943 UTC Sun May 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to a 1009 mb low pressure center near 11N101W to a 1010 mb low pressure center near 08N123W to 07N127W. The intertropical convergence zone is located from 07N127W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 05N to 12N between 99W and 108W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 95W and 99W and from 04N to 08N E of 82W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 117W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends from 1020 mb high pressure centered near 26N131W southeastward off the coast of Baja California. A surface trough resides over the Baja California peninsula, leading to moderate to locally fresh winds in the far northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas in open waters, with a component of southerly swell. No significant convection is noted. Satellite imagery reveals light to moderate smoke mainly close to the shore of Guerrero. The high pressure will dissipate tonight, allowing a cold front to approach Baja California later Mon before dissipating. Moderate to fresh SE winds will continue ahead of the front in the northern gulf, with fresh to strong NW winds developing behind the front as high pressure builds in offshore Baja California Tue and Wed. Seas during this time may reach around 8 ft in that area. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail. Periods of smoke and haze from inland agricultural fires may impact waters offshore southern Mexico into mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally tranquil marine weather conditions are in place over the area, with moderate south and southwest wind south of the monsoon trough and area seas averaging 4 to 6 ft. Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed offshore Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds will persist much of next week. To the S of the monsoon trough offshore Ecuador and Colombia, moderate to fresh SW winds are possible tonight and Mon. The monsoon trough is likely to become more active Mon and Tue, leading to more significant showers and thunderstorms for the waters offshore Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb high center near 26N131W continues to weaken, allowing a cold front to move through the NW waters from near 30N130W to 25N140W. In NW swell, seas behind the front are 8 to 10 ft. Along the monsoon trough, a pair of lows reside near 123W and 101W, with pressures of 1010 mb and 1009 mb, respectively. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within about 150 nm of the western low, with numerous strong thunderstorms located within about 180 nm of the eastern low. Some fresh winds and seas to around 8 ft are also likely near these lows. Both lows are expected to move little and slowly weaken early this week, with area seas mainly falling below 8 ft by mid week. $$ KONARIK