000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171517 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1456 UTC Sun May 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N93W to a 1008 mb low center near 10N105W to a 1012 mb low center 08N123W. The intertropical convergence zone is located from 08N123W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 05N to 12N between 95W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N E of 82W and from 06N to 10N between 115W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure near 26N132W to W of Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to locally fresh NW continue off Baja California Norte, while seas have fallen below 8 ft. With a surface trough over Baja California peninsula, the far northern sections of the Gulf of California are experiencing some moderate to fresh SE winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas in open waters, with a component of southerly swell. No significant convection is noted. Some smoke is likely causing some visibility restrictions offshore Guerrero. The high pressure will generally dissipate, allowing a cold front to approach Baja California Norte late Mon, then weaken and dissipate over the area by Tue morning. Until this front diminishes, moderate to locally fresh SE winds will continue in the far northern Gulf of California. Behind the front, fresh to strong NW winds will restrengthen to the W of Baja California as high pressure builds in Tue into Wed. Periods of smoke and haze from inland agricultural fires may impact waters offshore southern Mexico early this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally tranquil marine weather conditions are in place over the area, with moderate south and southwest wind south of the monsoon trough and area seas averaging 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will persist much of next week. The monsoon trough may become more active for the start of next week, leading to more significant showers and thunderstorms for the waters offshore Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Waters near the coast of northern central America may occasionally experience visibility restrictions in smoke from inland agricultural fires. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1018 mb high center near 26N132W continues to weaken, allowing a cold front to move through the NW waters from near 30N133W to 26N140W. In NW swell, seas behind the front are 8 to 9 ft. Along the ITCZ and monsoon trough, a western low previously near 135W has opened into a surface trough. Another low pressure of 1012 mb is located near 123W, and a new low pressure has developed near 105W with a pressure around 1008 mb. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms accompany these low pressure areas, as do fresh to occasionally strong winds and seas 8 to 10 ft within 90 nm of their centers. Seas are expected to subside to less than 8 ft in most areas along the monsoon trough by mid week. $$ KONARIK