000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170909 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 909 UTC Sun May 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 11N100W to a 1012 mb low pressure center near 08N122W to a 1011 mb low pressure center near 08N135W. The intertropical convergence zone is located from 08N135W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 05N to 12N between 95W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 06N to 10N between 120W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends from 1020 mb high pressure near 26N133W to south of Cabo San Lucas. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NW winds north of Punta Eugenia, where seas are estimated to be up to 8 ft with lingering NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas in open waters, with a component of southerly swell. No significant convection is noted. Smoke was observed earlier off Guerrero, causing moderate limitations to visibility over coastal waters. The high pressure west of the area will weaken ahead of a cold front moving toward Baja California. This front will weaken to a trough as it nears Baja California Norte late Mon, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California. High pressure building its wake will lead to another period of fresh to strong winds off Baja California Tue into Wed. Periods of smoke and haze from inland agricultural fires may impact waters offshore southern Mexico into next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally tranquil marine weather conditions are in place over the area, with moderate south and southwest wind south of the monsoon trough and area seas averaging 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will persist much of next week. The monsoon trough may become more active for the start of next week, leading to more significant showers and thunderstorms for the waters offshore Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Waters near the coast of northern central America may occasionally experience visibility restrictions in smoke from inland agricultural fires. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb high center analyzed near 26N133W is weakening ahead of a cold front moving into the waters north of 28N and west of 130W. An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated seas to 8 ft west of the front, primarily in NW swell. Farther south, a pair of low pressure centers persist along the ITCZ and monsoon trough near 122W and 135W. Small clusters of showers and thunderstorms accompany these low pressure areas, as do fresh to occasionally strong winds and seas 8 to 10 ft within 90 nm of their centers. A larger cluster of showers and thunderstorms farther east, a low to mid level trough along roughly 115W is supporting a larger complex of showers and thunderstorms from 05N to 12N between 95W and 108W. A weak low pressure may be getting organized in this area through the early part of the week. Southerly swell is subsiding across the region between 95W and 120W, although seas of 8 to 9 ft are still likely where there are fresh trade winds along the monsoon trough. Seas are expected to subside to less than 8 ft in most areas along the monsoon trough by mid week. $$ Christensen