000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162042 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2011 UTC Sat May 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to a 1010 mb low pressure center near 09N120W to another 1010 mb low pressure center near 08N131W. The intertropical convergence zone is located from 08N131W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 105W and 119W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 02N to 09N between 75W and 87W, from 03N to 11N between 101W and 105W, and from 05N to 10N between 119W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends SE well W of Baja California from a 1022 mb high pressure center near 28N131W. A daytime scatterometer pass revealed fresh NW winds continue offshore Baja California Norte, and a similarly timed altimeter pass shows 6 to 9 ft seas occurring in W to NW swell in the same area. Generally gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters in primarily SW swell. Visible satellite imagery and other analysis shows light smoke over waters off southern Mexico, with some more widespread visibility reductions from inland agricultural fires occurring offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero. The high pressure ridge will weaken further into Sunday, allowing winds to diminish to moderate offshore Baja California and a cold front to approach from the west. Seas will also decay. The front will weaken Mon as it approaches Baja California Norte, and dissipate over the area Mon night. High pressure building it its wake will bring fresh to strong winds offshore Baja California early Tue through Wed, as well as the potential for 6 to 8 ft seas Periods of smoke and haze from inland agricultural fires may impact waters offshore southern Mexico into next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally tranquil marine weather conditions are in place over the area, with moderate south and southwest wind south of the monsoon trough and area seas averaging 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will persist much of next week. The monsoon trough may become more active for the start of next week, leading to more significant showers and thunderstorms for the waters offshore Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Waters near the coast of northern central America may occasionally experience visibility restrictions in smoke from inland agricultural fires. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high center is analyzed near 28N131W. Light to gentle winds are near this high center. A pair of 1010 mb low pressure centers are along the ITCZ near 120W and 131W. Although recent scatterometer passes recorded winds near the centers of these lows, fresh to occasionally strong winds are likely occurring within 90 nm of their centers. These winds combined with some trade wind induced swell and long period southerly swell are leading to 8 to 10 ft seas in their vicinities. Farther south, the southerly swell is causing 7 to 9 ft seas mainly S of 05N between about 95W and 130W. The ridge will diminish through Sun, ahead of a weakening cold front pushing east across waters north of 25N. Large, long period NW swell will accompany this front west of about 120W through Mon. Trade winds will diminish in response to the high pressure dissipating. Looking ahead, another ridge will build behind the front, leading to fresh trades toward the middle of next week. The western low will dissipate through 48 hours, but another low pressure area is likely to form along the ITCZ/monsoon trough near 110W early next week. The southerly swell south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough will slowly subside into Sunday. $$ KONARIK