000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161458 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1433 UTC Sat May 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N100W to a 1010 mb low pressure centered near 09N120W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 09N120W to another 1010 mb low pressure center near 08N131W, then continues to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 105W and 129W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 03N to 11N between 101W and 105W, from 05N to 09N between 129W and 138W, and from 02N to 07N between 73W and 80W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 30N131W southeastward to NW of the Revillagigedo Islands. Scatterometer data indicates fresh NW winds continue offshore Baja California Norte and seas are likely from 6 to 9 ft in W to NW swell. Generally gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters in primarily SW swell. Haze and smoke continues to cause light visibility restrictions offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero. The ridge will continue to weaken this weekend, allowing winds to diminish off Baja California. A weakening cold front will approach Baja California late Sun, then gradually dissipate early next week over the area. High pressure building it its wake will bring fresh to strong winds offshore Baja California Tue into Wed. Periods of smoke and haze from inland agricultural fires may impact waters offshore southern Mexico into next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally tranquil marine weather conditions are in place over the area, with moderate south and southwest wind south of the monsoon trough and area seas averaging 4 to 6 ft. Some light visibility restricts in smoke are possibly occurring along the Guatemalan coast. Gentle to moderate winds will persist much of next week. Waters near the coast of northern South America may occasionally experience visibility restrictions in smoke from inland agricultural fires. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high center is analyzed near 30N131W. Light to gentle winds are near this high center. Infrared and scatterometer satellite data support the occurrence of a pair of low pressure centers along the ITCZ near 120W and 131W. Fresh to occasionally strong winds were observed within 90 nm of the centers of each of these lows. These winds combined with some trade wind induced swell and long period southerly swell are leading to 8 to 10 ft seas in their vicinities. Farther south, the southerly swell is causing 7 to 9 ft seas south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough between about 95W and 130W. The ridge will diminish through Sun, ahead of a weakening cold front pushing east across waters mainly north of 25N. Large, long period NW swell will accompany this front west of about 120W into Mon. Trade winds will diminish in response to the high pressure dissipating. Looking ahead, another ridge will build behind the front, leading to fresh trades toward the middle of next week. The western low will dissipate through 48 hours, but another low pressure area is likely to form along the ITCZ/monsoon trough near 110W by mid week. The southerly swell south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough will slowly subside. $$ KONARIK