000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160902 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 902 UTC Sat May 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 850 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N100W to 1011 mb low pressure near 09N121W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 10N121W to another 1011 mb low pressure center near 08N131W, then continues to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 105W and 125W, and from 06N to 09N between 125W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure centered near 30N131W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh NW winds are probably active this morning north of Punta Eugenia with 6 to 9 ft seas primarily in NW swell. Generally gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters in primarily SW swell. Haze and smoke is likely causing some light visibility restrictions offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero. The high pressure will weaken today ahead of a weak front, allowing winds to diminish off Baja California. The weak cold front will approach Baja California by Sun and weaken to a trough through early next week as it moves onshore. High pressure building in the wake of the trough will support fresh to strong winds again off Baja California by late Tue. Periods of smoke and haze from inland agricultural fires may impact waters offshore southern Mexico into next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally tranquil marine weather conditions are in places over the area, with moderate south and southwest wind south of the monsoon trough and area seas averaging 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will persist through mid week. A new set of long- period southwest swell reaching the coast of Central America will start to subside by early next week. Waters near the coast of northern South America may occasionally experience visibility restrictions in smoke from inland agricultural fires. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 30N131W. Light to gentle winds are near this high center. Farther south, various scatterometer satellite data from around 06 UTC indicated a pair of low pressure areas along the ITCZ near 121W and 131W. Fresh to occasionally strong winds were observed within 90 nm of the centers of each of these lows. These winds combined with some trade wind induced swell and long period southerly swell are leading to 7 to 9 ft seas in their vicinity. Farther south, the southerly swell is causing 7 to 9 ft seas south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough between about 95W and 130W. The ridge will diminish through Sun, ahead of a weakening cold front pushing east across waters mainly north of 25N. Large, long period NW swell will accompany this front west of about 120W into Mon. Trade winds will diminish in response to the high pressure dissipating. Looking ahead, another ridge will build behind the front, leading to fresh trades early next week. The western low will dissipate through 48 hours, but another low pressure area may form along the ITCZ/monsoon trough near 110W by mid week. The southerly swell south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough will slowly subside. $$ Christensen