000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160258 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 258 UTC Sat May 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N100W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N120W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 10N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 108W and 125W, and from 04N to 08N between 130W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure centered near 30N131W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent ship observations indicate fresh to locally strong winds are continuing off Baja California Norte, between the ridge and a surface trough extending down the peninsula. An altimeter pass from around the same time suggested seas in this area are around 7 to 8 ft. Generally gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters in primarily SW swell. Haze and smoke is likely causing some light visibility restrictions offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero. As the ridge weakens, winds will diminish Sat off Baja California. A weak cold front will approach at the end of the weekend and dissipate as a trough Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the trough will support fresh to strong winds again off Baja California by late Tue. Periods of smoke and haze from inland agricultural fires may impact waters offshore southern Mexico into next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally tranquil marine weather conditions are in places over the area, with moderate south and southwest wind south of the monsoon trough and area seas averaging 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will persist through mid week. A new set of long- period southwest swell will reach the coast of Central America by tonight, before starting to subside by early next week. Waters near the coast of northern South America may occasionally experience visibility restrictions in smoke from inland agricultural fires. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 30N131W. Light to gentle winds are near this high center. A slow moving 1010 mb low pressure center is along the ITCZ near 10N120W and continues to produce a large area of showers along with some fresh winds within 120 nm on its north side. These winds combined with some trade wind induced swell and long period southerly swell are leading to 7 to 9 ft seas in their vicinity. Farther south, the southerly swell is causing 7 to 9 ft seas south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough between about 95W and 125W. The ridge will diminish through Sun, allowing a weakening cold front to push east across waters mainly north of 25N. Large, long period NW swell will accompany this front west of about 120W into Mon. Trade winds will diminish in response to the high pressure dissipating. Looking ahead, another ridge will build behind the front, leading to fresh trades early next week. The southerly swell south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough will slowly subside. $$ Christensen