000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152032 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2006 UTC Fri May 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N80W to 11N98W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09N116W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 09N116W to 1010 mb low pressure near 07N127W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 105W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N130W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to locally strong winds are occurring off Baja California, between the ridge and a surface trough extending down the peninsula. An earlier altimeter pass suggests seas in this area are around 7 to 8 ft. Generally gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters in primarily SW swell. Haze and smoke is likely causing some light visibility restrictions offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero. As the ridge weakens, winds will diminish Sat off Baja California. A weak cold front will approach at the end of the weekend and dissipate as a trough Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the trough will support fresh to strong winds again off Baja California by late Tue. Periods of smoke and haze from inland agricultural fires may impact waters offshore southern Mexico into next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally tranquil marine weather conditions are in places over the area, with moderate south and southwest wind south of the monsoon trough and area seas averaging 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will persist through early next week. A new set of long- period southwest swell will reach the coast of Central America by tonight, before starting to subside by early next week. Waters near the coast of northern South America may occasionally experience visibility restrictions in smoke from inland agricultural fires. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1023 mb high center is analyzed near 30N130W. Light to gentle winds are near this high center. A pair of slow moving 1010 mb low pressure centers are along the ITCZ and producing robust convection along with some fresh winds on their north sides. These winds combined with some trade wind induced swell and long period southerly swell are leading to 7 to 9 ft seas in their vicinity. Farther south, the southerly swell is causing 7 to 9 ft seas south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough between about 95W and 125W. The ridge will diminish this weekend, allowing a weakening cold front to push east across waters mainly N of 25N. Large, long period NW swell will accompany this front W of about 120W into Mon. Trade winds will diminish in response to the high pressure dissipating, but behind the front another ridge will build in, leading to fresh trades early next week. The southerly swell S of the ITCZ and monsoon trough will slowly subside. $$ KONARIK