000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151526 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1508 UTC Fri May 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N82W to 10N100W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N116W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 10N116W to 1009 mb low pressure near 07N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 110W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure centered near 30N130W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Ship observations from this morning and early scatterometer data indicate fresh NW winds continue off Baja California Norte. Seas in this areas are 6 to 8 ft. Generally gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters in primarily SW swell. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted in Mexican offshore waters. It appears this morning that smoke has generally diminished off southern Mexico for the time being. For the forecast, the winds off Baja California will diminish starting Sat as the high pressure dissipates ahead of a weak cold front. Looking ahead, the front will weaken and dissipate through Mon as it approaches Baja California Norte. High pressure building in the wake of the trough will support fresh to strong winds again off Baja California by late Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Smoke and haze from agricultural fires has generally diminished this morning off the coast of Guatemala. Gentle to moderate breezes prevail with seas averaging 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will persist through early next week. A new set of long- period southwest swell will reach the coast of Central America by tonight, before starting to subside by early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1023 mb high center is analyzed near 30N130W. Light to gentle winds are near this high center. 1010 mb and 1009 mb surface lows are located near 116W and 125W, respectively, along the ITCZ. Both lows have scattered thunderstorms, some strong, with generally moderate to fresh winds on their north sides. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are near the lows. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, southerly swell between 95W and 125W is leading to seas of 7 to 9 ft. The high pressure area will diminish through Sun ahead of a cold front moving eastward across the waters north of 20N. Large, long-period NW swell will follow the front north of 20N and west of 120W from late Sat through Mon. Looking ahead, the front will weaken as it shifts eastward early next week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, possibly enhancing trade wind flow farther south into the tropics. The southerly swell is expected to subside. However slight enhancements to the trade winds near the areas of low pressure along the ITCZ or monsoon trough may allow for seas near the low pressure areas to reach 8 ft due to the trade wind flow and lingering southerly swell. $$ KONARIK