000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150407 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 405 UTC Fri May 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 08N110W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N115W to 1011 mb low pressure near 07N123W. the intertropical convergence zone continues from 07N123W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 11N between 90W and 95W, and from 05N to 09N between 103W and 108W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 07N to 10N between 116W and 119W, and from 06N to 09N between 122W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 30N130W southeastward through the Revillagigedo Islands. Ship observations indicate NW winds are increasing and seas are building off Baja California as the pressure gradient tightens between the high and lower pressure farther east. Generally gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters in primarily SW swell. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted in Mexican offshore waters. Haze and areas of smoke, mostly light, from agricultural fires in Mexico is present near the coast from Chiapas to Michoacan. For the forecast, the winds off Baja California will diminish starting Sat as the high pressure dissipates ahead of a weak cold front. Looking ahead, the front will weaken and dissipate through Mon as it approaches Baja California Norte. High pressure building in the wake of the trough will support fresh to strong winds again off Baja California by late Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Haze and areas of smoke, mostly light, from agricultural fires in northern Central America is present near the coast off Guatemala. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the monsoon trough, beyond 200 nm off the coast from northwest Nicaragua to southern Guatemala. Gentle to moderate winds will persist through early next week. A new set of long- period southwest swell will reach the coast of Central America by late Fri, before starting to subside by early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1023 mb high center is analyzed near 30N130W. Light to gentle winds are near this high center. A pair of 1011 mb surface lows are noted along the monsoon trough near 115W and 123W. Strong convection is noted near these low, particularly the low near 123W. A recent scatterometer pass indicate fresh winds on the north side of this low pressure. A concurrent altimeter pass showed seas of 8 to 9 ft near the low, with a component of southerly swell. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and to west of 120W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds prevail elsewhere over the forecast waters. Wave heights are in the 6-8 ft range north of the ITCZ to near 16N and west of 130W. Wave heights in the 5-7 ft range prevail elsewhere. Little change in the trade wind flow is expected into the upcoming weekend. A cold front is forecast to approach the far northwest corner of the area on Fri night, then move across the northwest waters this weekend. The front will usher in a set of northwest swell, with wave heights building to 8-10 ft. A set of long-period cross equatorial south to southwest swell has propagated into the southern waters between Ecuador and 120W. Wave heights will build to 9-10 ft south of the equator, and to 8-9 ft south of about 10N and west of the Galapagos to about 120W through Fri night before decaying Sat and Sat night. $$ Christensen