000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu May 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low over northwestern Colombia near 09N76W southwestward to the coast at 08N78W and to 05N84W to 08N90W to low pressure near 09N99W 1010 mb and to 08N109W, where afternoon scatterometer indicates it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to low pressure near 10N114W 1010 mb to low pressure near 08N124W 1009 mb, then to 05N128W and to beyond the area at 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 117W-121W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 124W-126W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 98W-105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Haze and areas of smoke, mostly light, from agricultural fires in Mexico is present near the coast from the Tehuantepec region to near Cabo Corrientes. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 29N132W southeastward to southwestern Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh winds northwest to north winds continue west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Wave heights are in the 6-7 ft range west of Baja California Norte and 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Wave heights are low, of 1-2 ft, in the Gulf of California. A building ridge across the forecast waters to the west of the Baja California peninsula will tighten the pressure gradient today. This will strengthen winds, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro, through Fri night. Northwest swell has brought wave heights of 8-9 ft in the waters north of Punta Eugenia. These wave heights will propagate southeastward between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro through Fri night, subsiding to less than 8 ft by late Sat. Winds and wave heights will decrease Sun and Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Haze and areas of smoke, mostly light, from agricultural fires in northern Central America is present near the coast from northwestern Nicaragua to Guatemala. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds to the north of the monsoon trough. Wave heights are in the 6-7 ft range between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds will continue south of the monsoon trough today before becoming mainly light to gentle in speeds, with little change through Sat. Winds will increase slightly, to moderate to locally fresh, later this weekend into early next week. Wave heights will be mainly 4-6 ft primarily in long- period southwest swell. A set of long-period southwest swell, with its leading edge consisting of 19 to 21 seconds periods will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight and into early Fri. The swell is forecast to reach the coast of Central America on Fri afternoon and possibly lead to rough coastal conditions there. Wave heights are forecast to peak around 9 ft southwest of the Galapagos Islands Fri and Fri night before starting to subside on Sat and Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1025 mb high center is analyzed near 29N132W. Light to gentle winds are near this high center. A 1009 mb low is along the monsoon trough near 08N124W. The gradient between it and the high pressure is allowing for northeast to east of 20-25 kt to exist within 60 nm north of the low. The low will generally track westward through Sat as the high pressure shifts south and weakens. The gradient will weaken enough to allow for the 20-25 kt winds to diminish to fresh speeds. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and to west of 120W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds prevail elsewhere over the forecast waters. Wave heights are in the 6-8 ft range north of the ITCZ to near 16N and west of 130W. Wave heights in the 5-7 ft range prevail elsewhere. Little change in the trade wind flow is expected into the upcoming weekend. A cold front is forecast to approach the far northwest corner of the area on Fri night, then move across the northwest waters this weekend. The front will usher in a set of northwest swell, with wave heights building to 8-10 ft. A set of long-period cross equatorial south to southwest swell has propagated into the southern waters between Ecuador and 120W. Wave heights will build to 9-10 ft south of the equator, and to 8-9 ft south of about 10N and west of the Galapagos to about 120W through Fri night before decaying Sat and Sat night. $$ Aguirre