000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140844 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 629 UTC Thu May 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08.5N101W to low pres near 10N112W to 06N124W. The ITCZ extends from 06N124W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 04N to 10N between 87W and 106W, from 08N to 11N between 111W and 115W, from 05N to 08N between 120W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Haze and areas of smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce visibilities near the coast from the Tehuantepec region to near Cabo Corrientes, and also within the area between Las Marias and Revillagigedo Islands. A surface ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure centered near 29N132W southeast to SW Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail W of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range W of Baja California Norte and 4-6 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the Gulf of California. A building ridge across the forecast waters W of the Baja California peninsula will tighten the pressure gradient today. This will strengthen winds, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro, through Fri night. NW swell will build seas of 8-9 ft in the waters north of Punta Eugenia today. These wave heights will propagate southeastward between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro through Fri night, subsiding to less than 8 ft by late Sat. Winds and wave heights will decrease Sun and Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Haze and areas of smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America may reduce visibilities mainly near the coast from northwestern Nicaragua to Guatemala. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds to the north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds will continue south of the monsoon trough today before becoming mainly light to gentle in speeds, with little change through Sat. Winds will increase slightly, to moderate to locally fresh, later this weekend into early next week. Wave heights will be mainly 4-6 ft primarily in long- period southwest swell. A new set of long- period southwest swell, with a leading edge period of 19 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight and into early Fri. The swell is forecast to reach the coast of Central America on Fri. Wave heights are forecast to peak around 9 ft southwest of the Galapagos Islands Fri and Fri night before starting to subside on Sat and Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high center is analyzed near 29N132W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the forecast waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range north of the ITCZ to near 16N and W of 130W. Seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail elsewhere. Little change in the trade wind flow is expected into the upcoming weekend. A cold front is forecast to approach the far northwest corner of the area on Fri night, then move across the northwest waters this weekend. The front will usher in a set of northwest swell, with seas building to 8-10 ft. A set of cross equatorial long-period south to southwest swell has propagated into the southern waters between Ecuador and 120W. Seas will build to 9-10 ft south of the equator, and to 8-9 ft south of about 10N and west of the Galapagos to about 120W through Fri night before decaying Sat and Sat night. $$ AL