000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed May 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1011 mb low over northwestern Colombia southwestward to the coast of Panama at 08N78W, and continues to 09N90W to low pres at 10N110W 1010 mb and to 09N113W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to low pres at 09N117W 1011 mb to 07N130W and to beyond the area at 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection exists within 180 nm south of trough between 93W-99W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of trough between 98W-103W, within 120 nm south of ITCZ between 116W-120W, within 60 nm of trough between 81W-86W and and within 60 nm north if ITCZ between 117W-121W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of trough between 98W-105W, and also within 60 nm of trough between 110W- 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Haze and areas of smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce visibilities near the coast from the Tehuantepec region to near Cabo Corrientes, and also within the area between Las Marias and Revillagigedo Islands. A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low that is analyzed along the border between southern California and northern Baja California southwestward to west of 27N120W as a surface ridge is present to the south of the front and west of Baja California and SW Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds northwest to north are over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle north to northeast winds are present elsewhere. Waveheights are in the 5-7 ft range west of Baja California Norte, while waveheights of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Low waveheights of 1-2 ft are over the Gulf of California. A building ridge across the northern forecast waters will tighten the gradient leading to winds mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro to increase to fresh speeds tonight through Fri night. Waveheights of 8-9 ft due to a NW swell will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia by early Thu evening. These waveheights will propagate southeastward between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro through Fri night, subsiding to less than 8 ft by late Sat. Winds and waveheights will diminish and subside, respectively, Sun and Sun night. Mainly light to moderate southerly flow and waveheights of 3 ft or less will continue inside the Gulf of California, with the exception of the northern part of the Gulf where a dissipating cold front moving across the area has briefly freshen winds there. These winds are forecast to become light and variable this afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Haze and areas of smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America may reduce visibilities mainly near the coast from northwestern Nicaragua to Guatemala. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of it. Waveheights in the vicinity of the trough are in the 4-6 ft range. Fresh east in the Gulf of Papagayo will become mainly gentle south winds this afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through Thu before become mainly light to gentle in speeds and remain through Sat. Waveheights will be mainly 4-6 ft primarily in long- period southwest swell. A new set of long- period southwest swell, with a leading edge period of 19 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Thu night and into early Fri. It is then forecast to reach the coast of Central America by late Fri. Seas will build to 8 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands Fri and Fri night, subsiding on Sat and Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front extends from a 1011 mb low that is analyzed along the border between southern California and northern Baja California southwestward to 27N120W and to 26N124W, where it becomes weakening stationary to 23N125W. A 1021 mb high center is analyzed at 29N136W. The gradient between this high and the front is providing for generally gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across this part of the area along with waveheights of 5-7 ft. Weaker high pressure combined with lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough are supporting moderate to fresh trade winds along with waveheights of 5-8 ft there. Little change in the trade wind flow is expected into the upcoming weekend. A cold front is forecast to approach the far northwest corner of the area on Fri night, then move across the northwest waters this weekend with another set of northwest swell bringing seas of 8-10 ft behind it. A set of cross equatorial long-period south to southwest swell will propagate across the southern waters between Ecuador and 120W today. Seas will build to 9-10 ft south of the equator, and to 8-9 ft south of about 10N and west of the Galapagos to about 120W through Fri night before decaying Sat and Sat night. $$ Aguirre