000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122006 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue May 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 08.5N74W to 08N90W to 07N99W to 10N110W to 1011 mb low pressure near 08N116W to 08N120W. The ITCZ continues from 08N120W to 10N130W then resumes from 10N135W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between Colombia and 84W, from 07N to 10N between 90W and 93W, from 04N to 06N between 93W and 95W, within 120 nm in the E semicircle of the low near 08N116W, and from 08N to 13N between 123W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Haze and areas of smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce visibilities near the coast from the Tehuantepec region to near Cabo Corrientes, and across the area between Las Marias and Revillagigedo Islands. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Residual seas to 8 ft from an earlier Tehuantepec gap wind event will subside this evening. Light onshore flow should prevail for the remainder of the week. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Sea heights are in the 5-7 ft range, except 3-5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf of California. This weather pattern will persist over the next few days. A building ridge across the northern forecast waters will bring an increase in winds to 20-25 kt, mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro Wed night through Fri night. Seas of 8-9 ft in NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by late Thu, and propagate SE between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro through Fri night, subsiding to less than 8 ft by late Sat. Winds and seas will diminish and subside Sun and Sun night. Mainly light to moderate southerly flow and seas of 3 ft or less will prevail inside the Gulf of California, with the exception of the northern part of the Gulf where a dissipating cold front moving across the area could briefly bring fresh winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Haze and areas of smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may reduce visibilities near the coast from Costa Rica to Guatemala. Light to moderate winds will continue to prevail across the offshore forecast waters, except in the Gulf of Papagayo where moderate to fresh offshore winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft primarily in long period SW swell. A new set of long period SW swell, with a leading edge period of 19 to 21 seconds, will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Thu night into early Fri, and the Pacific coast of Central America by late Fri. Seas will build to 8 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands Fri and Fri night, subsiding on Sat and Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... N of 20N, a cold front extends from near Santa Barbara, California through 30N123W to 21N140W. NW swell behind the front has subsided to less than 8 ft. Weak high pressure ridging is SE of the front with gentle to moderate winds. The front is forecast to slowly dissipate through the middle of the week as it moves eastward across the northern forecast waters. S of 20N, weak ridging combined with lower pressures along the ITCZ and monsoon trough are supporting moderate to fresh trades along with 5-8 ft seas. New high pressure will build in behind the front mentioned above with little change in the trade wind flow through the week. The next front will approach 30N140W from the NW on Fri night, moving across the NW waters this weekend with another set of NW swell at 8-10 ft behind it. A set of cross equatorial long period SW swell will propagate across the S waters between Ecuador and 120W on Wed, building seas to 9-10 ft S of the equator, and to 8-9 ft S of 10N and W of the Galapagos to about 120W through Fri night, decaying Sat and Sat night. $$ Lewitsky