000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu May 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near the Panama/Costa Rica border at 08.5N83W to 07N92W to 07N103W. The ITCZ extends from 07N103W to 09N110W to 07N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm SE of the trough E of 88W, within 180 nm N of the ITCZ, and within 180 nm S of the ITCZ W of 126W. Similar convection is within 180 nm SW of the Gulf of Fonseca. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 109W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Smoke from agricultural fires may reduce visibilities well offshore from the Tehuantepec region to near Cabo Corrientes. High pressure N of the area across eastern Mexico will support near gale force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri, with another round of near gale force gap winds possible early Sun through Mon night. Seas will be near 8 ft through early Fri, then 8 to 10 ft with the next round of gap winds. A ridge axis extends from well N of the area over western British Columbia SW to 23N136W then curling SE to across the Revillagigedo Islands to 13N104W. Gentle to moderate winds were noted early this morning across the waters outside of the Tehuantepec region. Strong to near gale northerly winds offshore of southern California continue to produce fresh northerly swell spreading into the waters W of Baja California with seas of 6 to 9 ft. This swell will decay through tonight. Gentle to moderate westerly breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist across the Mexican offshore waters south of 20N. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Areas of smoke from agricultural fires may reduce visibilities offshore of western Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala. Fresh to strong gap winds across the Papagayo region will in the late night and early morning hours through Fri morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the weekend, diminishing some early next week. Large long period SW swell passing the Galapagos Islands today will reach offshore waters of Central America and coasts of Ecuador and Colombia Fri, decaying early next week. Seas will build to up to 8 to 10 ft with this swell event, with the highest just SW of the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh northerly swell associated with strong to near gale force northerly winds off the coast of southern California will continue west of Guadalupe Island, N of 25N and E of 125W into early Fri before decaying. A ridge axis extends from well N of the area over western British Columbia SW to 23N136W then curling SE to across the Revillagigedo Islands to 13N104W. This ridge is supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh trades across the open waters of the tropical Pacific. Seas are mainly 5 to 8 ft, except 8 to 9 ft in the W central waters just N of the ITCZ where the strongest trades, at fresh levels, are blowing. These trades will diminish some by early Fri as the ridge weakens due to a decaying cold front which will approach 30N140W by the end of the week. NW swell associated with that decaying front will breach SE of 30N140W by Fri evening with seas up to around 8 ft, then decaying by Sat. Another cold front may manage to sneak SE of 30N140W by the end of the weekend into early next week with another set of NW swell arriving in its wake. Meanwhile Southern Hemispheric long period SW swell is crossing the equator E of 130W bringing seas of 8 to 11 ft S of 14N and by late Fri. This swell will subside across the tropics below 8 ft Sat evening as it propagates toward Central America and far southern Mexico. $$ Lewitsky