000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052014 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1918 UTC Tue May 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 10N105W. The ITCZ extends from 10N105W to 10N115W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 83W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 08N to 12N between 90W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate westerly breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist across the Mexican offshore waters south of 20N. A few showers and thunderstorms are active off the coast of southern Mexico. Smoke from agricultural burning may impact visibility near the shore, mainly during the early morning. For the forecast, a late season cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will deliver strong to near gale force gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night and Thu nights with seas building to 10 ft. Seas generated by the northerly gap winds will mix with longer period southerly swell reaching the area by late Thu. Farther north, a ridge extends 1025 mb surface high pressure near 30N133W through the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent ship observations indicate moderate to fresh winds off the Baja California peninsula. Earlier altimeter satellite data indicated seas are still 8 to 9 ft off Baja California Norte, mainly north of 29N, with NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte into late week, while winds will diminish. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds are occurring the the Papagayo region. Elsewhere light to gentle winds prevail. Seas remain 4 to 6 ft through the region. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse Wed night and again Thu night through the Papagayo region and the coast of Nicaragua in response to high pressure building north of the area. SW long period swell is likely to reach the Galapagos Islands Thu and Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Northerly swell associated with strong winds off the coast of southern California are moving into the waters west of Guadalupe Island, north of 25N and east of 125W. 1025 mb high pressure centered farther west near 30N133W is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the deep tropics. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. The swell is expected to taper off through mid week, with seas diminishing below 8 ft by Thu night. A trough will develop along the ITCZ west of 125W and drift westward through late week. Meanwhile Southern Hemispheric long period SW swell will move across the equator east of 130W Wed night, brining 8 to 10 ft seas south of 08N and east of 120W by late Fri. This swell will subside below 8 ft by Sun. $$ Christensen