000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032107 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2106 UTC Sun May 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N83W to 06N103W. The ITCZ extends from 06N103W to 08N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered thunderstorms are active from 05N to 07N between 85W and 87W, from 07N to 09N between 92W and 96W, and from 09N to 11N between 98W and 110W. Scattered showers are likely occurring along the ITCZ between 120W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge reaches from 1026 mb high pressure centered near 30N130W to the Revillagigedo Islands. Earlier ship observations show fresh to strong NW flow off the coast of Baja California Norte, between this ridge and low pressure along the Baja California peninsula, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. The surface trough is deepening slightly as a broad mid/upper trough approaches from the west. Moderate gap winds are lingering in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate winds are also funneling near Cabo San Lucas and off Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle breezes prevail over elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 4-6 ft in open waters. A few showers may be ongoing across the Revillagigedo Islands ahead of the mid/upper trough. But other no shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. Moderate smoke due to agricultural fires may be limiting visibility across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and off Chiapas. Smoke appears to be diminishing off Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan. The fresh to strong winds and building seas will persist off Baja California, mainly north of Punta Eugenia, through Mon as the surface trough over the area deepens. NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte through mid week. Farther south, smoke from agricultural fires may reduce visibility at times in off the coast of Chiapas including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over the tropics is weakening as the high pressure shifts east. Gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and Panama are diminishing as a result, although one more brief pulse is expected tonight with the help of local drainage flow. Elsewhere light to gentle winds prevail. Seas remain 4-6 ft through the region. Moderate smoke covers the offshore waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Gap winds will continue to diminish into mid week, before increasing again by late Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America will continue to reduce visibility at times in the waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Looking ahead, some SW long period swell may begin to approach the Galapagos Islands by the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge north of 20N maintains moderate to fresh trades over the waters across the tropical waters west of 120W. Wave heights peak around 8 to 9 ft from 10N to 15N west of 135W in mixed NW and SE swell. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trades are noted near the ITCZ west of 110W. Gentle winds generally prevail east of 110W. A weak front stalls near 30N140W then dissipates early this week. NW swell to 8 ft will accompany the front north of 25N and west of 135W, but decay thereafter. The front dissipates quickly and the ridge rebuilds rapidly, so there is little impact on the trade wind flow or seas farther south into the tropics. Trade wind convergence south of the ridge is supporting widespread cloudiness and probably a few showers along the ITCZ west of 125W as well. Looking ahead, Southern Hemispheric long period SW swell is likely to move N of the equator for the latter half of the week. $$ Christensen