000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031541 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1524 UTC Sun May 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N82W to 05N102W. The ITCZ extends from 05N102W to 08N120W to beyond 04N140W. Numerous moderate convection is noted off Colombia from 02N to 07N, east of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 125W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge reaches from 1025 mb high pressure centered near 31N134W to the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent ship observations show fresh to strong NW flow off the coast of Baja California Norte, between this ridge and low pressure along the Baja California peninsula, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong N gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, otherwise light to gentle breezes prevail over most of the Mexico offshore waters. Winds and seas will increase slightly off Baja California early in the week as a broad mid to upper level trough moving eastward over the area reinforces the surface trough along the peninsula. Fresh, potentially locally strong, northerly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft can be expected off Baja California Norte through Mon night. The high pressure building west of the area behind the trough will allow fresh winds to funnel off Cabo San Lucas late today and again late Mon. Looking ahead, winds will diminish through mid week as the trough weakens. Northerly swell of 7 to 9 ft will persist in the waters off Baja California Norte beyond 120 nm into late week. Farther south, persistent light to gentle winds will prevail through into late week. Smoke from agricultural fires may reduce visibility at times off the Chiapas, Oaxaca, Michoacan, and Guerrero coasts. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The gradient between high pressure farther north across the subtropics and lower pressure over the deep tropics enhanced by local diurnal drainage flow is produced strong gap winds early this morning through the Gulf of Papagayo. Similarly, fresh gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere light to gentle winds prevail. Seas remain 4-6 ft through the region. Moderate smoke covers the offshore waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. The gap winds in the Papagayo region will diminish to moderate later today then increase again tonight to fresh, before decreasing into the middle of the week. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America will continue to reduce visibility at times in the waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Looking ahead, some SW long period swell may begin to approach the Galapagos Islands by the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge north of 20N maintains moderate to fresh trades over the waters across the tropical waters west of 120W. Wave heights peak around 8 to 9 ft from 10N to 15N west of 135W in mixed NW and SE swell. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trades are noted near the ITCZ west of 110W. Gentle winds generally prevail east of 110W. The ridge will shift south ahead of a weak front moving into the waters north of 25N and west of 133W early in the week. NW swell to 8 ft will accompany the front north of 25N and west of 135W, but decay thereafter. The front dissipates quickly and the ridge rebuilds rapidly, so there is little impact on the trade wind flow or seas farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, Southern Hemispheric long period SW swell is likely to move N of the equator for the latter half of the week. $$ Christensen