000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030135 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0130 UTC Sun May 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 07N100W. The ITCZ extends from 07N100W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N, W of 133W. Scattered moderate convection is located within 90 nm of the trough and within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 102W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge reaches from high pressure centered near 29N138W toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate NW flow is evident off Baja California Norte, between the ridge and lower pressure inland. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area, with a component of short period northerly swell. Moderate northerly gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere light breezes persist over much of the Mexican offshore waters. Winds and seas will increase slightly off Baja California early in the week as a broad mid to upper level trough moving eastward over the area reinforces the surface trough along the peninsula. Fresh northerly winds and seas to 9 ft can be expected off Baja California Norte late Sun into late Mon. The high pressure building west of the area behind the trough will allow fresh winds to funnel off Cabo San Lucas late Mon. Fresh westerly gap winds may pulse through the La Paz area for the first part of the week as well. Looking ahead, winds will diminish through mid week as the trough weakens. Northerly swell of 7 to 8 ft will persist in the waters off Baja California Norte beyond 120 nm into late week. Farther south, persistent light to gentle winds will prevail through mid week. Smoke from agricultural fires may reduce visibility at times off the Chiapas and Oaxaca coasts. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The gradient between high pressure farther north across the subtropics and lower pressure over the deep tropics enhanced by local diurnal drainage flow is producing strong gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo tonight. Similarly, fresh gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere light to gentle winds prevail. Seas remain 4-6 ft through the region. Moderate smoke covers the offshore waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. The fresh to occasionally strong gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into Mon, then diminish through the middle of next week. Dense smoke from agricultural fires in Central America will continue to reduce visibility at times in the waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Looking ahead, some SW long period swell may begin to approach the Galapagos Islands by the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge north of 20N maintains moderate to fresh trades over the waters across the tropical waters west of 120W. Wave heights peak around 8 ft from 10N to 15N west of 135W in mixed NW and SE swell. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trades are noted near the ITCZ west of 110W. Gentle winds generally prevail east of 110W. The ridge will shift south ahead of a weak front moving into the waters north of 20N and west of 130W early in the week. NW swell to 8 ft will accompany the front north of 25N and west of 130W, but decay thereafter. The front dissipates quickly and the ridge rebuilds rapidly, so there is little impact on the trade wind flow or seas farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, Southern Hemispheric long period SW swell may move north of the equator by the middle of next week. $$ KONARIK