000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022149 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2149 UTC Sat May 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 06N85W to 07N100W. The ITCZ extends from 07N100W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the trough between 83W and 87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 103W and 107W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also active from 04N to 06N, west of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge reaches from high pressure centered near 30N140W though the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate NW flow is evident off Baja California Norte, between the ridge and lower pressure inland. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area, with a component of short period northerly swell. Moderate northerly gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere light breezes persist over much of the Mexican offshore waters. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is noted across the Gulf of California, on the east side of the resident trough along the Baja California peninsula. Winds and seas will increase slightly off Baja California early in the week as a broad mid to upper level trough moving eastward over the area reinforces the surface trough along the peninsula. Fresh northerly winds and seas to 9 ft can be expected off Baja California Norte late Sun through Mon. The high pressure building west of the area behind the trough will allow fresh winds to funnel off Cabo San Lucas late Mon. Winds will diminish over the Gulf of California as the surface trough drifts a bit more eastward. The exception will be moderate to even fresh westerly gap wind pulses through the La Paz area into the southern Gulf of California. Looking ahead, winds will diminish through mid week as the trough weakens. Northerly swell of 7 to 8 ft will persist in the waters off Baja California Norte beyond 120 nm through mid week. Farther south, gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region tapering off, leaving the remainder of the area with persistent light to gentle winds through mid week. Smoke from agricultural fires may reduce visibility at times off the Chiapas and Oaxaca coasts. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The gradient between high pressure farther north across the subtropics and lower pressure over the deep tropics supporting support fresh gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo currently. This will be enhanced by local drainage flow tonight, to support fresh to strong gap winds. Similarly, moderate gap winds into the Gulf of Panama will increase to moderate to fresh tonight. Elsewhere light to gentle winds prevail. Seas remain 4-6 ft through the region. Moderate smoke covers the offshore waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. The fresh to occasionally strong gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into Mon, then diminish through the middle of next week. Dense smoke from agricultural fires in Central America will continue to reduce visibility at times in the waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Looking ahead, some SW long period swell may begin to approach the Galapagos Islands toward the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge north of 20N maintains moderate to fresh trades over the waters across the tropical waters west of 120W. Wave heights peak around 8 ft from 10N to 15N west of 135W in mixed NW and SE swell. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trades are noted near the ITCZ west of 110W. Gentle winds generally prevail east of 110W. The ridge will shift south and weaken ahead of a weak front moving into the waters north of 20N and west of 130W early in the week. NW swell to 8 ft will accompany the front north of 25N and west of 130W, but decay thereafter. The front dissipates quickly and the ridge rebuilds rapidly, so there is little impact on the trade wind flow or seas farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, Southern Hemispheric long period SW swell may move north of the equator toward the middle of next week. $$ Christensen