000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020633
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0630 UTC Sat May 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...    

A surface trough extends from 07N80W to 05N112W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N114W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 119W and 138W.
Scattered moderate convection is located from 03N to 13N between
93W and 106W and from 04N to 08N between 106W and 111W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Aside from strong N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
moderate NW winds offshore Baja California Norte, light to gentle
wind prevails, as high pressure ridges southeastward well W of
the coast of Mexico. Some visibility restrictions in smoke are 
likely occurring offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas.

The offshore high pressure ridge will persist through the middle
of next week. The gradient between it and low pressure trough
over Baja California will lead to moderate to fresh NW flow to
the W of the peninsula. Wind waves combined with N swell
propagating into the region will lead to seas of 8 to 10 ft to
the N and w of Punta Eugenia from later Sun through the early
part of next week. Gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region
will end this weekend, leaving the remainder of the area with
persistent light to gentle winds. Smoke from agricultural fires 
may reduce visibility at times in the Tehuantepec region into
next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A pulse of fresh to strong E gap winds is likely occurring over
the Papagayo region, otherwise light to gentle winds prevail.
 Seas remain 4-6 ft through the region. Moderate smoke blankets 
the offshore waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, 
with areas of dense smoke closer to the coast. Dense smoke may 
reduce visibility to 1 nm or less at times. 

Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region through Mon, then diminish into the middle of
next week. Dense smoke from agricultural fires in Central 
America will reduce visibility to 1 nm or less at times in the 
waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Looking ahead,
some SW long period swell may begin to approach the Galapagos 
Islands toward the middle of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge over the northern waters maintains moderate
to fresh trades over the waters S of 20N W of 120W. Wave heights
peak around 8 ft near 11N137W in mixed NW and SE swell. 
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trades are noted S of the 
ITCZ W of 110W. Gentle winds generally prevail E of 110W, with 
locally higher winds and gusts near ITCZ convection described 
above.

High pressure will prevail across the northern waters through 
the middle of next week. Winds and seas will increase west of 
Baja California Sun night through Wed. Elsewhere, freshening 
trade winds will maintain seas to 8-9 ft roughly W of 135W 
through early Mon. Looking ahead, Southern Hemispheric long
period SW swell may move N of the equator toward the middle of
next week.

$$
KONARIK