000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011520
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1520 UTC Fri May 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...    

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 06N80W to 08N87W to 
07N101W. The ITCZ extends from 07N101W to 08N106W to 04N126W to  
04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 nm
of the trough, within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 111W and 118W,
and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 126W and 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Near gale-force gap winds continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
with fresh to strong winds well downstream as far as 11N97W. A 
12 UTC altimeter pass over the Tehuantepec region shows 8-11 ft 
seas. Farther north, a high pressure ridge remains positioned 
well offshore of Baja California. Winds are gentle to moderate 
over the Baja California waters, but NW swell is producing 7-9 
ft seas over the outer waters N of Punta Eugenia. Visible 
satellite imagery this morning indicates smoke from agricultural
fires lingers over the waters roughly from Cabo Corrientes SE to
the Tehuantepec region. Note that smoke may reduce visibility at
times over these waters.

The offshore high pressure ridge will persist through early next
week. Strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish 
this afternoon, then briefly pulse to strong speeds overnight. 
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will develop over the 
Gulf of California today through Sat. NW swell over the waters N 
of Punta Eugenia will gradually decay through Sat. Another set of
NW swell will propagate across the Baja California waters Sun 
night through early next week. Smoke from agricultural fires may 
reduce visibility at times in the offshore waters south of Cabo 
Corrientes.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to locally strong winds are pulsing over the Papagayo 
region this morning. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail
across much of the region, with moderate southerly flow closer to
the trough described above. Seas generally remain 4-6 ft, with 
slightly higher seas well offshore of Guatemala in N swell from 
the Tehuantepec region. Visible satellite imagery indicates smoke
from agricultural fires remains over the waters off Guatemala 
and El Salvador. Note that smoke may reduce visibility at times 
over these waters.

Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region through Mon, then diminish into the middle of
next week. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may 
reduce visibility at times in the waters off Guatemala and El 
Salvador.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge persists across the northern waters this
morning. Moderate to fresh trades persist S of 22N W of 120W, 
with seas to 8 ft in mixed NW and NE swell near 12N136W. Recent 
altimeter data shows 8 ft seas in NW swell N of 25N E of 125W.
South of the ITCZ, moderate SE flow prevails W of 105W with 5-7 
ft seas.

High pressure will prevail across the northern waters through 
early next week. NW swell west of Baja California Norte will
gradually decay through Sat. Winds and seas will increase west 
of Baja California early next week as high pressure builds NW of 
the region. Elsewhere, freshening trade winds will maintain seas
to 8 ft roughly W of 135W through the weekend.

$$
B Reinhart