000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250846
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Apr 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure area of 1008 MB is centered near 13N116W. A direct 
scatterometer pass over the low at 0442 UTC shows a well defined 
cyclonic circulation with 20 kt winds in the western semicircle. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 
nm of the low center. Environmental conditions are favorable for 
some gradual development of the low. There is currently a high 
chance that a tropical depression will form in the next day or 
so as the system moves slowly northwest around 10 kt. By Sunday, 
conditions will become less conducive for development. Please 
refer to Special Tropical Weather Outlook TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...    

A surface trough extends from 09N78W to 06N85W to 08N99W. The 
ITCZ extends from 08N118W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 90W 
and 101W, from 07N to 11N between 104W and 109W, and within 120 
nm north of the ITCZ west of 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail west of Baja California Sur, 
with light to gentle winds prevailing over the remainder of the 
forecast waters. Seas are 6-8 ft west of Baja California Norte 
in NW swell. Seas in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere, except 2 ft or 
less over the Gulf of California. 

Weak surface troughing will prevail over the Baja California 
region through Mon. High pressure will start to build into the 
region from the west by the middle of next week. Seas west of 
Baja California Norte will remain in the 6-8 ft range. A pulse 
of fresh to strong northerly winds are likely in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sun night into Monday morning. Fairly tranquil 
marine conditions will prevail elsewhere through the middle of 
next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A weak pressure pattern is resulting in mostly light to gentle
winds across the forecast waters. Seas are mainly 4 to 5 ft in a
mix of long period southerly and NW swell.

Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected across most of 
the forecast area through Wed, except for the Papagayo region, 
where fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are possible.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see special features above for more on the potential for
tropical cyclone development.

High pressure prevails north of the area. Outside of the higher 
winds associated with the low pressure area mentioned in the 
special features section, most recent scatterometer data shows 
gentle to moderate across nearly all the entire discussion area. 
Seas are in the 5-8 ft range.

Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over this area through the
beginning of next week. High pressure will start to build the 
beginning of next week which will help to freshen trade winds by 
mid-week. Long-period NW swell is expected to maintain combined 
seas of 6 to 7 ft west of 120W this weekend. S swell will likely 
produce combined seas to 7-8 ft in equatorial waters west of 
100W through Sat.

$$
Mundell