000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242041
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1928 UTC Fri Apr 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure of 1007 MB is centered near 13N115W. This 
afternoons scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong winds
over the SW quadrant of the low. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection was noted from 05N to 17N between 110W and 
118W. The low continues to show signs of organization and 
environmental conditions are favorable for additional gradual 
development of the low. There is currently a high chance that a 
tropical depression will form in the next day or two as the 
system moves slowly northwestward. By late this weekend, 
conditions will become less conducive for development. Please 
refer to Special Tropical Weather Outlook TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...    

A surface trough extends from 09N78W to 05N89W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N122W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection was noted from 02N to 08N E of 97W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 02N to 11N 
between 105W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection was noted 
within 60 nm N of the ITCZ W of 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the Baja California peninsula. 
The pressure gradient has loosened across the area. Most recent 
ASCAT pass indicates gentle to moderate winds prevail west of 
Baja California Sur, with light to gentle winds prevailing over 
the remainder of the forecast waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft 
range off Baja California Norte in NW swell. Over the remainder 
of open waters, seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail. Seas are 2 ft 
or less over the Gulf of California. 

Weak surface troughing will prevail over the Baja California
region through early next week. High pressure will then start to
build into the region from the west. Seas west of Baja California
Norte will remain in the 6-8 ft range. A pulse of fresh to 
strong northerly winds is likely in the Tehuantepec region Sun 
night. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail
elsewhere through the middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A weak pressure pattern is resulting in mostly light to gentle
winds across the forecast waters. Seas are mainly 4 to 5 ft in a
mix of long period southerly and NW swell.

Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected across most of 
the forecast area through Wed, except for the Papagayo region, 
where fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are possible.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see special features above for more on the potential for
tropical cyclone development.

High pressure prevails north of the area. Outside of the strong
winds associated to the low pressure center in the special
features section, most recent ASCAT data indicate gentle to 
moderate winds N of 07N and W of 120W. Seas over this area are in
the 6-9 ft range. 

Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over this area through the
beginning of next week. High pressure will start to build the
beginning of next week which will help to freshen tradewinds by
midweek. Long- period NW swell should cause combined seas to 
remain 6 to 7 ft west of 120W this weekend. S swell will likely 
produce combined seas to 7 ft in equatorial waters west of 100W 
through Sat.

$$
AL