000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241500 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1400 UTC Fri Apr 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1007 MB is centered near 12N114W. Overnight scatterometer pass indicated an elongated low with near gale force winds E of the low center. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection was noted within 75 nm of the center of the low. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere from 05N to 15N between 110W and 118W. The low continues to show signs of organization and environmental conditions are favorable for additional gradual development of the low. There is currently a high chance that a tropical depression will form in the next day or two as the system moves slowly northwestward. By late this weekend, conditions will become less conducive for development. Please refer to Special Tropical Weather Outlook TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N78W to 06N93W. The ITCZ extends from 08N121W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 04N to 08N E of 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 02N to 06N between 98W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends west of the forecast area while a surface trough extends across the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting gentle to moderate winds, and 5-6 ft seas, west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 4-5 ft range, prevail elsewhere over open waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas 2 ft or less prevail over the Gulf of California. The winds west of Baja California will diminish today as the ridge shifts from the area and weak surface troughing develops A pulse of fresh to strong northerly winds is likely in the Tehuantepec region Sun night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern is resulting in mostly light to gentle winds across the forecast waters. Seas are mainly 4 to 5 ft in a mix of long period southerly and NW swell. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected across most of the forecast area through Tue, except for the Papagayo region, where fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are possible. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features above for more on the potential for tropical cyclone development. High pressure north of the area combined with lower pressures associated with lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and a low pressure center is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft, from 09N to 25N W of 120W. The high will weaken today, with lighter NE trades expected into Mon. Long-period NW swell should cause combined seas to remain 6 to 7 ft west of 120W this weekend. S swell will likely produce combined seas to 8 ft in equatorial waters west of 100W through Sat. $$ AL