000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240840 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Apr 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area several hundred miles SSW of the southern tip of Baja California near 11N113W have become beteer organized. Scatterometer data shows 25 kt winds in thecyclonic circulation. The low will drift slowly NW during the next 48 hours. Conditions appear somewhat favorable for gradual development of this low through Sat. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation with this low, until conditions become less conducive for development later in the weekend. Please refer to Special Tropical Weather Outlook TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N80W to 10N101W. A second surface trough extends from 11N110W to a 1009 mb low near 11N113W to a 1010 mb low near 08N120W to 05N130W. The ITCZ is located from 04N132W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with the low near 11N113W is noted from 08N to 14N between 111W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 03N to 06N between 97W and 104W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the area centered near 35N133W extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between this ridge and a trough east of Baja California is supporting moderate NW winds west of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft W of Baja California in wind waves and decaying NW long period swell. The winds west of Baja California will diminish today as the ridge backs away and weak surface troughing develops W of Baja California. NW swell of 6 to 8 ft will continue to impact the waters W of Baja California Norte through Sat. A pulse of fresh to strong northerly winds is likely in the Tehuantepec region Sun night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern is resulting in mostly gentle winds in Central American and equatorial waters. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in a mix of long period southerly and NW swell. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected across most of the forecast area through Tue, except for the Papagayo region, where fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are possible. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area combined with lower pressures associated with the equatorial region is supporting fresh trade winds from 09N to 25N W of 120W, and seas of 6 to 8 ft. The high will weaken today, with lighter NE trades expected into Mon. Long-period NW swell should cause combined seas to remain 6 to 7 ft west of 120W this weekend. S swell will likely produce combined seas to 8 ft in equatorial waters west of 100W through Sat. Please see the Special Features section above for details on a developing low pressure center near 11N113W. $$ Mundell