000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Apr 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Scattered disorganized showers and thunderstorms are located along a trough of low pressure several hundred miles SSW of the southern tip of Baja California roughly near 11N112W. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring on either side of this trough. A low pressure is forecast to form in this area during the next 12 to 24 hours, then drift slowly NW. Conditions appear somewhat favorable for gradual development of this low through Sat. There is a moderate chance of tropical cyclone formation with this low, until conditions become less conducive for development later in the weekend. Please refer to Special Tropical Weather Outlook TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is located east of 100W between 04N and 09N. Another surface trough extends from 14N108W to 10N113W to a 1008 mb low near 07N120W to 06N124W. The ITCZ is located from 06N128W to 04N134W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 107W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 03N to 07N between 82W and 93W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the area centered near 34N134W extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between this ridge and a modest low pressure trough near the E coast of Baja California is supporting moderate NW winds west of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore zones. Seas are 6 to 8 ft W of Baja California in wind waves and decaying NW long period swell. The winds west of Baja California will diminish on Fri as the ridge backs away and as weak surface troughing develops W of Baja California. NW swell of 6 to 8 ft will continue to impact the waters W of Baja California Norte through Sat. A pulse of fresh to strong northerly winds is likely in the Tehuantepec region Sun night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern is resulting in mostly gentle winds along the Central American and equatorial waters. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in a mix of long period southerly and NW swell. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected across most of the forecast area through Tue, except in the Papagayo region where fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are possible. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area combined with lower pressures associated with the equatorial region is supporting fresh trade winds from 09N to 25N W of 120W, and seas of 6 to 8 ft. The high will weaken on Fri, with lighter NE trades expected Fri through Mon. Long-period NW swell should cause combined seas to remain 6 to 7 ft west of 120W this weekend. S swell will likely produce combined seas to 8 ft in equatorial waters west of 100W on Fri and Sat. Please see the Special Features section above for details on a developing low pressure center near 11N112W. $$ Mundell