000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232102 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2033 UTC Thu Apr 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Scattered disorganized showers and thunderstorms are located along a trough of low pressure several hundred miles S of the southern tip of Baja California roughly near 10N112W. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring on either side of this trough, especially to the SE. Low pressure is forecast to form in this area later tonight, the drift slowly NW. Conditions appear favorable for some gradual development of this low between now and Sat, when the low will be near 14N113W. There is now a moderate chance of tropical cyclone formation with this low, before conditions become less conducive for development for the latter part of the weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is located from 07N77W to 10N105W to 05N129W. The ITCZ is located from 04N132W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 77W and 90W and from 04N to 13N between 106N and 125N. Scattered moderate convection is located from 05N to 11N between 127N and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1032 mb high pressure is centered near 33N134W with a ridge extending SE to NW of the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between this ridge and a modest low pressure trough near the E coast of Baja California is supporting moderate NW winds to the W of Baja California Norte. Elsewhere winds are moderate breeze or weaker across the Mexican offshore zones. Seas are 6 to 8 ft W of Baja California due to the aforementioned winds as well as decaying NW long period swell. The NW winds W of Baja California will decrease to gentle by Fri as the ridge backs away and as weak surface troughing develops W of Baja California. NW swell at 6 to 8 ft will continue to impact the waters W of Baja California Norte through Sat. For the waters just S of Oaxaca, nearshore W winds of moderate to fresh will are likely into tonight due to the influence of low pressure over interior Mexico. A pulse of fresh to strong northerly winds is likely in the Tehuantepec region Sun night into Mon. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions should prevail through the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern is resulting in winds along the Central American and equatorial waters to be gentle breeze or weaker currently. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in a mix of long period southern hemisphere southerly swell and northwesterly swell. The weak pressure pattern should continue to provide tranquil conditions through the weekend, except in the Papagayo region where fresh offshore nocturnal winds are forecast Sat night and Sun night, then possibly strong Mon night due to a locally tight pressure gradient. No significant long-period swell is expected through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1032 mb high pressure is centered near 33N134W with a ridge extending SE to northwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridging combined with lower pressure to the S is supporting fresh trades from 09N to 25N and W of 120W along with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The high is anticipated to weaken some by Fri, leading to lighter NE trades on Fri through Mon. However, continued long- period NW swell should cause combined seas to be 8 to 10 ft generally N of 12N and W of 122W into the weekend. A combination of S swell and SE wind waves will likely produce combined seas up to 8 ft along the equatorial waters west of 100W on Fri and Sat. Please see the Special Features section above for details on a developing low pressure center near 10N112W. $$ KONARIK