000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231525 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1513 UTC Thu Apr 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large area of disturbed weather is located along a trough of low pressure several hundred miles S of the southern tip of Baja California roughly near 10N111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within about 180 nm all quadrants of this point. Some fresh SW winds are located on the SE side of this trough. Low pressure is likely to form in this area later today or tonight. Conditions appear favorable for some gradual development of this low as it moves slowly NW to near 13N113W by Sat. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through Sat, before conditions become less conducive for development for the latter part of the weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Pacific coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 05N80W to 10N88W to 11N100W. Another surface trough extends from 12N105W to 08N114W to 06N123W to 08N129W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N between 77W and 83W, from 03N to 10N between 104W and 109W, from 07N to 14N between 109W and 115W, from 04N to 08N between 115W and 120W, and from 06N to 09N between 124W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1032 mb high pressure is centered near 33N134W with a ridge extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between this ridge and a modest low pressure trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate NW winds to the W of Baja California. Elsewhere winds are moderate breeze or weaker across the Mexican offshore zones. Seas are 6 to 8 ft W of Baja California due to the aforementioned winds as well as decaying NW long period swell. The NW winds W of Baja California will decrease to gentle by Fri as the ridge backs away and as weak surface troughing develops W of Baja California. NW swell at 6 to 8 ft will continue to impact the waters W of Baja California Norte through Sat. For the waters just S of Oaxaca, nearshore W winds of moderate to fresh will develop early today and continue into tonight due to the influence of low pressure over interior Mexico. A pulse of fresh to strong northerly winds is possible in the Tehuantepec region Sun night into Mon. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions should prevail through the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern is resulting in winds along the Central American and equatorial waters to be gentle breeze or weaker currently. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in a mix of long period southern hemisphere southerly swell and northwesterly swell, except slightly higher seas up to 7 ft S-SW of the Galapagos. The weak pressure pattern should continue to provide tranquil conditions through the weekend, except in the Papagayo region where fresh offshore nocturnal winds are likely Sat night, and fresh to strong Sun night and Mon night due to a locally tight pressure gradient. No significant long-period swell is expected through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1032 mb high pressure is centered near 33N134W with a ridge extending SE to the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridging along with several weak troughs and lower pressure along the convergence zone is supporting fresh trades from 09N to 25N and W of 120W along with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The high is anticipated to weaken some by Fri, leading to lighter NE trades on Fri through Mon. However, continued long- period NW swell should cause combined seas to be 8 to 10 ft generally N of 12N and W of 122W into the weekend. A combination of S swell and SE wind waves will likely produce combined seas up to 8 ft along the equatorial waters west of 100W on Fri and Sat. Please see the Special Features section above for details on a developing low pressure center near 10N110W. $$ KONARIK