000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210815 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Apr 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N140W to low pressure near 07.5N104W to 05N116W. The ITCZ continues from 05N120W to 05N131W, then resumes from 04N135W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm S of the trough between 94W and 104W and from 08N to 13N between 102W and 106W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 126W and 131W, from 06N to 10N between 132W and 135W, and also from 02N to 04N between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from NW of the area to 25N117W to near the Revillagigedo Islands while a surface trough extends along the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between these two features is supporting fresh to strong NW winds W of the Baja California peninsula as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range over the open waters in a mix of SW and NW swell, building to around 8 ft W of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California. High pressure centered NW of the area will build through the middle of the week. This will expand the area of fresh to strong winds W of Baja California Norte. The high pressure center then will weaken and shift slightly further from the area. This will loosen the pressure gradient enough to diminish winds to 20 kt or less by late Wed. Fresh NW swell will propagate into these waters which will build combined seas to 8 to 10 ft before subsiding by the end of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the week and into the weekend along with 4 to 7 ft seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern prevails. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama as well as the forecast waters between the Galapagos and Ecuador. Light the gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range between the Galapagos and Ecuador in SW swell. Seas in the 4 to 6 ft range prevail elsewhere. The weak pressure pattern will continue though Sat, keeping winds mainly in the light to gentle range. Winds will become offshore and increase to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region Sat night as the local pressure gradient tightens. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails N of the forecast waters near 35N131W. A few perturbations prevail across the tropical waters. Low pres of 1011 MB is centered near 07.5N104W. A surface trough extends from 12N116W to 03N118W. Another surface trough extends from 11N131W to 01N134W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and surface trough is supporting fresh to strong winds from 10N to 20N W of 125W as sampled by recent scatterometer data, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere from 09N to 24N W of 115W. Mainly moderate winds prevail in the vicinity of the low outside of any associated convection. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in a mix of NW and SW swell, except 8 to 9 ft over the fresh to strong wind area in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. The perturbations are forecast to move westward through the week. The high center will build N of the forecast waters. This will help to maintain a relatively tight the pressure gradient across much of the waters N of the ITCZ, supporting continued fresh to strong trades over the tradewind zone N of the ITCZ. Winds will diminish by the end of the week as the high weakens and pressure gradient loosens. $$ Lewitsky