000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210204
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Apr 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...    

A surface trough extends from 08N94W to low pressure near 07N103W
to 05N118W. The ITCZ continues from 05N118W to 05N130W, then
resumes from 05N134W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted within 14N103W to 05N91W to
01N94W to 04N104W to 14N103W, from 10N to 14N between 111W and
117W, within 10N133W to 10N125W to 08N125W to 04N132W to 04N136W
to 10N133W, and from 03N to 06N between 137W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from NW to SE across the offshore waters while a
surface trough extends along the Gulf of California. The 
pressure gradient between these two features is supporting
developing fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja California 
peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in 
the 5-7 ft range over the open waters in a mix of SW and NW 
swell. Seas are 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California. 

High pressure centered NW of the area will build through the
middle of the week. This will strengthen and expand winds W of 
Baja California Norte. The high pressure center then will weaken 
and shift slightly further from the area. This will loosen the 
pressure gradient enough to diminish winds to 20 kt or less by 
late Wed. Fresh NW swell will propagate into these waters which 
will build combined seas to 8 to 10 ft before subsiding by the 
end of the week. 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the week
and into the weekend along with 4 to 7 ft seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A weak pressure pattern prevails. Gentle to locally moderate
winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama as
well as the forecast waters between the Galapagos and Ecuador.
Light the gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6 to 7
ft range between the Galapagos and Ecuador in SW swell. Seas in 
the 4 to 6 ft range prevail elsewhere. The weak pressure pattern
will continue though Sat, keeping winds mainly in the light to 
gentle range. Little change in seas is expected through remainder
of the week into the first half of the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails just N of the forecast waters near
33N132W. A few perturbations prevail across the tropical 
waters. Low pres of 1010 MB is centered near 07N103W. A surface 
trough extends from 14N114W to 07N117W. Another surface trough 
extends from 10N131W to 01N133W. The pressure gradient between 
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of 
the ITCZ and surface trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds
from 09N to 22N W of 120W, as well as from 09N to 15N between 
115W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the NW 
quadrant of the low. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in a mix of NW and SW swell, 
except building to 8 to 9 ft over the W central waters in NW 
swell and NE wind waves.

The perturbations are forecast to move westward through the week.
The high center will build N of the forecast waters. This will 
help tighten the pressure gradient across much of the waters N of
the ITCZ, supporting fresh to locally strong trades over the 
tradewind zone N of the ITCZ. Winds will diminish by the end of 
the week as the high weakens and pressure gradient loosens. The
area of building seas will build across the area of increasing 
trades as the NW swell combines with the fresh NE wind waves.

$$
Lewitsky