000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192105 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2018 UTC Sun Apr 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from low pres 1012 mb centered over northern Colombia near 10N72W to 04N81W to low pres 1011 mb near 06N96W to 02.5N116W. The ITCZ continues in segments from 02.5N116W to 05N126W and from 04N131W to beyond 04N140W. A surface trough that extends from 00N130W to 10N125W splits the ITCZ. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 04N to 07N between 84W and 101W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 120 nm either side of a line from 09N100W to 11N116W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place from 03N to 07N between 128W and 138W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 04N between 111W and 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 111W AND 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pres centered near 27N125W to S of Acapulco Mexico near 15N100W. A surface trough runs along the length of the Gulf of California from 31N114W to 23N108W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate winds along the W coast of the Baja Peninsula, including Cabo San Lucas. Moderate winds were also noted near and S of Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in the waters W of the Baja Peninsula, and 4 to 5 ft elsewhere across the open forecast waters. Seas ranging between 1 and 2 ft are found in the Gulf of California. The high pres ridge W of Baja California will weaken through Mon evening in advance of a cold front expected to cross northern Baja Mon evening. The ridge will rebuild Mon night through Wed, then remain in place through Thu night. Winds W of Baja California Norte will strengthen accordingly Mon night through Wed. Fresh NW swell will propagate SE offshore of Baja California and cause seas to build to between 7 and 9 ft Tue through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak high pres ridge N of the area will combine with a surface trough near 05N to generally maintain light to gentle winds over the region through Fri night. Moderate SW swell will maintain 5 to 6 ft seas for the waters between Colombia and Ecuador through Tue. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region, and 3-5 ft elsewhere, except across the waters between Colombia and Ecuador where seas are building to 5-7 ft in moderate SW swell. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are anticipated for the remainder of this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pres centered near 27N125W to S of Acapulco near 15N100W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Low pressure measuring 1011 mb is embedded in the ITCZ near 06N96W. Gentle to moderate winds are present in the vicinity of the low. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. The area of high pres centered W of Baja will weaken in response to low pres moving over the NE Pacific. This will allow trade winds to diminish tonight. High pres will rebuild N of the forecast area Mon night through Thu after low pres over the NE Pacific moves E. This will strengthen tradewinds W of 120W during this time frame. The low embedded in the ITCZ will shift WNW during the next few days. Gentle to moderate winds are expected to prevail within 120 nm of the center of the low. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere for the next several days. Long period NW swell will combine with NE wind waves and cause seas to build to between 8 and 9 ft N of 10N and W of 130W Mon. The area of 8 ft seas will expand E to 120W on Tue and Wed before starting to recede W Thu. N swell will propagate into the waters N of 25N and E of 125W, causing seas to build to between 8 and 9 ft Wed and Thu. $$ CAM