000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2056 UTC Mon Apr 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 11N86W to 07N103W to 05N118W. The ITCZ extends from 04N118W to 03N130W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N E of 94W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 14N between 90W and 95W, from 03N to 06N between 112W and 117W, and from 06N to 10N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between low pressure over the SW United States and surface high pressure west of the Baja California peninsula continue to support moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds along the Baja offshore waters southward to near Manzanillo, Mexico adjacent waters. Latest altimeter data and model guidance indicate seas in this region range between the 4-6 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail with seas in the 2-4 ft range. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder southern Mexico offshore waters with seas in the 5-6 ft range, in SW swell. By Wed, the area of low pressure will move east and the ridge will slightly weaken. This will allow for the pressure gradient across the region to relax, and winds to decrease to gentle to moderate speeds west of Baja and in the Gulf of California. These conditions will then continue through Fri, except for the northern Gulf of California where a surface trough will support moderate to fresh SW winds beginning on Thu evening. Low pressure in the SW United States will deepen by Fri evening and the SW winds associated with the trough will increase to fresh to strong N of 29N. Seas during the peak winds in the northern Gulf of California are expected to build to 4 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will dominate elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds are across the offshores from Guatemala to Colombia with seas in the 4-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds are over the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador offshore waters with seas between 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Fri. With active convection associated with the equatorial trough, latest model guidance forecast fresh to locally strong SW to W winds over Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters Tue and Wed. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere along with long period cross-equatorial S-SW swell. Moist S to SW flow will prevail over the forecast area through the middle of next week. Conditions will be favorable for locally heavy rainfall to persist over the waters near the equatorial trough axis, shifting eastward into southern Costa Rica, Panama, western Colombia and northwest Ecuador during the next several days. Please refer to forecasts and statements issued by your local meteorological services. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this are of high pressure and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Light to gentle winds prevail N of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds prevail S of 05N. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range S of 15N and W of 120W. Seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail elsewhere. The ridge will continue to prevail over the northern waters through the end of the week with the same general conditions. Widespread active convection occurring S of 10N and E of 100W will continue at least through the middle of the week, as large scale conditions are favorable for deep convection. $$ Ramos