000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112138
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2050 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...    

A surface trough extends across the tropical NE Pacific from 
10N74W TO 06N92W TO 08N101W TO 04.5N119W. The ITCZ continues 
from 05N120W TO 01N133W TO beyond 01.5N140W. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is noted from 01.5N TO 08N between 77W AND 
101W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01.5N TO 08N BETWEEN 
103W AND 121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh N to NW winds prevail across the offshore waters from Punta
Eugenia southward to Cabo Corrientes and the Revillagigedo 
Islands, to near 15N early this afternoon. Scatterometer data
from midday showed a significant area of 20-25 kt winds off of
Cabo San Lucas extending southward to near 20N. Seas there have
built to 8 ft. Seas remain in the 5-7 ft range across the
remainder of this area. Low pressure continues to shift inland 
and weaken across the far NW corner of Mexico, SW Arizona, and
the far northern Gulf of California, dragging with it a
dissipating frontal boundary across the northern Gulf of 
California. Westerly winds of 10-15 kt prevail across the Tiburon
Basin of the northern Gulf, to the south of the frontal trough. Seas
there have likely subsided to 3-4 ft. Fresh NW winds follow the 
frontal boundary across the far northern waters of Baja Norte, 
where seas remain 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate NW to W winds and 
seas of 3-5 ft prevail over the southern Gulf of California.

Deep layered low pressure along the southern California coast 
for the past few days will continue to shift E-SE across northern
Mexico and the desert SW of the U.S. through the weekend. This 
pattern has forced the NE Pacific ridge to build underneath this 
feature to the waters SW of Cabo Corrientes. As the remnants of 
the surface low shift across SW Arizona today, the NE Pacific 
high will build modestly SE across the offshore waters to 
maintain fresh northerly winds, becoming fresh to strong this 
afternoon and evening. Seas will build 7-8 ft through this 
evening then slowly subside. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NNW 
winds will prevail through the weekend across the Baja waters, as
well as the southern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW to
W winds can be expected offshore from Manzanillo to Acapulco. 
Winds and seas will diminish Sun through Tue as the high 
reorganizes farther west of the region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate offshore gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo 
region while gentle northerly flow is spilling across the Gulf 
of Panama this afternoon. Light to gentle onshore winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are generally in the 4-5 ft range.

Moist S to SW flow will gradually increase over the forecast 
area this weekend as large scale atmospheric conditions become 
favorable for enhanced widespread convection through the middle 
of next week. Conditions appear favorable for locally heavy 
rainfall to persist over the waters near the equatorial trough 
axis, and shift eastward into southern Costa Rica, Panama, 
western Colombia and northwest Ecuador during the next several 
days. Please refer to forecasts and statements issued by your 
local meteorological services.

Otherwise, marine winds and seas will remain mostly tranquil 
across the offshore waters through the weekend. Cross-equatorial 
S-SW swell will move into the regional waters beginning Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over NW waters 
between 130W and 140W and lower pressures near the equator is 
supporting moderate to fresh northeast trades, and 7-8 ft seas, 
from 05N to 21N west of 123W, and fresh N to NE winds from 05N 
to 20N between 110W and 123W, where seas are 6-8 ft. Winds 
across the trade wind belt will diminish this weekend as the high
pressure to the north weakens and the associated ridge 
reorganizes. Widespread active convection occurring along and 
north of the equatorial trough will continue through Sun, as 
conditions become favorable for deep convection across much of 
the tropical northeast Pacific.

$$
Stripling