000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Apr 08 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from A 1009 mb low over northwest Colombia westward to across northern Panama, to the Costa Rican/Panamanian border, then southwestward to 06N90W and to 05N98W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that the ITCZ begins and continues to 05N104W. It is briefly interrupted by a trough that extends from 12N105W to 06N106W and to 01N105W before resuming at 06N109W to 05N120W to 04N130W and to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 84W-86W, and also within 30 nm of the trough between 93W and 95W. A trough extends from 12N105W to 06N106W to 01N105W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the trough from 06N to 09N, and within 120 nm west of the trough from 05N to 08N. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm of 08N102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a 1009 mb low located over California/Nevada border south-southwestward to California to across northern Baja California and continues to the eastern Pacific waters near 24N121W. An anomalously deep upper-level low moving slowly eastward is identified to be just north of the area near 33N120W. A short-wave trough continues to lift northward in the east side of this low. Atmospheric instability contributed by these features is helping to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters north of 30N and east of 121W. This activity is expected to last through late Fri as the upper-level advances inland the southwestern United States. Meanwhile, a surface ridge is building in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong southwest winds continue ahead of the front over the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds continue from Baja California Sur to near Cabo Corrientes, including the southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle northwest to north winds remain elsewhere across these waters. Over the open waters off Mexico, wave heights are in the 5-6 ft range, except peaking up to 7 ft off the coast of Cabo Corrientes. Wave height are in the 3-4 ft range over the northern Gulf of California, and 2 ft or less over the remainder of the Gulf of California. The cold front will dissipate today, with high pressure building in the wake of the front. As the ridge builds, fresh to locally strong winds will develop off the west coast of Baja California Sur and offshore Cabo Corrientes today and Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. Elsewhere light to gentle winds prevail. Outside the Gulf of Papagayo, wave heights are in the 5-6 ft range. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and a surface trough over the equatorial waters will continue to allow for pulses of fresh to strong northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu before winds start to diminish. Very moist southerly flow expected to gradually increase south of the trough while at the same time a large scale upper-level disturbance is forecast to move across the eastern Pacific and the southern section of Central America into the middle of next week. These ingredients appear favorable to possibly promote locally heavy rainfall over sections of southern Costa Rica, Panama, western Colombia and northwest Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California to near 24N121W. A ridge of high pressure is building in the wake of the front. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds to the north of the ITCZ to near 21N and west of about 115W, where wave heights are in the 6-8 ft range. Elsewhere, trade winds are in the gentle to moderate range, with wave heights of 5-7 ft. High pressure will build further southeast and south while strengthening in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. This will tighten the pressure gradient and support fresh to strong trade winds. Wave heights resulting from these trade winds are forecast by Wave model guidance to peak to 10 ft late tonight into Thu as the area of these wave heights expands. $$ Aguirre