000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Apr 07 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 09N84W to 05N92W. ITCZ axis extends from 05N92W, where it bisected by a trough that extends from 10N104W to 06N105W and to 02N106W. The ITCZ resumes at 05N106W to 04N120W to 05N130W to beyond the area at 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 98W and 102W, and also within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 110W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the surface trough from 04N to 07N, and and within 120 nm west of the trough from 04N and 08N. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... At 18Z, a cold front extends from a 1014 mb low centered over far NW Mexico at 32N114W southwestward to 29N115W to 25N120W and dissipating to near 22N130W. Scattered showers are present offshore the far northern section of Baja California, and northward from there toward southern California, mainly attributed to atmospheric instability aloft from a weak disturbance lifting north-northeast ahead of the eastern periphery of a broad upper-level trough situated to north of 21N. The earlier fresh southwest winds that were ahead of this front over the northern Gulf of California have become light to gentle south to southwest winds this afternoon. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Baja California and SW Mexico. Behind the front wave heights are in the range of 5-7 ft, otherwise wave heights are generally 4-6 ft or less across the area. The cold front is forecast to continue to move across the northern Gulf of California during the remainder of this afternoon and early before dissipating tonight into Wed. An area of northwest swell, with waveheights reaching 9 or 10 ft will follow in behind the front over the north-central waters this evening before decaying Wed afternoon and with wave heights responding by lowering to below 8 ft at that time. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. As the ridge builds, fresh to locally strong winds are likely to develop off the west coast of Baja California Sur and offshore Cabo Corrientes Wed and Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, while northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama are mainly in the gentle range. Elsewhere light to gentle winds prevail. Wave heights are in the range of 5-7 ft between the Galapagos Islands and mainland Ecuador where southwest swell is propagating across the area. Elsewhere, seas are less than 5 ft. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and a surface trough over the equatorial waters will continue to allow for pulses of fresh to strong northeast winds each night in the Gulf of Papagayo region beginning tonight. Long-period southwest swell will continue across the southern waters will subside through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is analyzed along a position from near 29N115W to 25N120W to 24N122W, then dissipating to near 22N130W. Strong high pressure is building in the wake of the front. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly fresh trade winds from about 10N to 17N and between 128W and 140W, where wave heights are in the 6-8 ft range. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 24N and west of 115W, trades are of the gentle to moderate range, with wave heights of 5-7 ft, These general conditions will change little through tonight. The strong high pressure behind the front will then build south-southeastward while it strengthens beginning late tonight. This will tighten the gradient further resulting in the moderate trade winds increasing to strong speeds. These trades will briefly diminish to fresh speeds early Wed, then increase back up to strong speeds Wed afternoon and through the end of the week while diminishing in coverage. Wave heights with these tradewinds will peak to 10 ft late Wed into Thu. A surface trough extends from 10N104W to 06N105W and 02N106W. Associated convection is described above under the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section. $$ Aguirre