000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042138
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 09N74W TO 08.5N85W TO 03.5N100W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N104W TO 01N126W TO 02N140W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection isolated strong convection is noted within
120 nm either side of line from 07.5N82W TO 04.5N89W TO 
03.5N99W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from
06.5N TO 11N between 113W AND 129W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from weakening 1025 mb high pressure 
near 30N142W to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and a surface trough over the Gulf of 
California is supporting moderate N-NW winds off Baja 
California. Light S to SW winds persist across most of the Gulf 
of California, while light to gentle NW to W winds prevail across
the remaining Mexican waters from Cabo Corrientes to the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in NW swell prevail across the 
near shore waters north of Punta Eugenia and are 7 to 8 ft 
across the offshore zones within 120 nm of the coast. Farther 
south, seas of 4 to 6 ft in a mix of NW and SW swell dominate 
marine conditions. 

Low pressure will form north of the area over southern 
California early next week. An associated cold front will slowly 
approach Baja California and the Gulf of California through Tue. 
Fresh to strong SW winds will pulse each night across the 
northern Gulf of California ahead of the front tonight, Sun 
night and again Mon night. Otherwise generally quiescent 
conditions will persist across the offshore waters of Mexico
through Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Rather quiet conditions are observed over the Central American 
and equatorial waters, with light to gentle winds and seas in the
3-5 ft range prevailing. These conditions are expected to change
little through tonight. Early next week, a western Caribbean 
high pressure ridge is forecast to build southward. This will 
tighten the pressure gradient over the region and produce fresh 
to strong northeast to east gap winds across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. Long-period southwest swell will reach the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered well north of the area near
30N142W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting fresh winds, and seas in the 6-8 ft range north of 
the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail elsewhere.

The area of high pressure will weaken and shift westward through 
Sun. This will enable a frontal boundary to move into the waters
north of 25N Sun into early next week. The pressure gradient 
across the tradewind belt will loosen as the area of high 
pressure weakens. This will diminish trade winds to the moderate 
range, and associated seas will decrease over the tropical waters
Sun through Tue. Fresh trade winds will return toward late Tue
through mid week as high pressure builds in the wake of the 
front.

$$
Stripling